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爱吃垃圾食品的猫 · 2022年05月03日

这个时候的汇率变动是短期的变动是吗?

NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assumethat the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency whilethe EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed tofluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchangerate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibriumvalue of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

B.

nominal yield spreadbetween the EM and DM countries increases over time 

C.

expected inflationdifferential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward 

解释:

Allelse equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead todepreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibriumreal exchange rate + (realinterest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


与irp跟ppp不同 这个问题里问的是短期内利率与风险程度变化导致短期内汇率的变动吗?

3 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年05月11日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


但是老师在ppt里说的这条real exchange rate公式里说的就是即期关系 不是长期关系


区分下这几个概念:

即期、远期、短期、长期。


以利率为例:

即期利率是指当下的利率, 它可以是短期利率,也可以是长期利率。

比如,今天的1年期利率,就是短期利率,今天的30年期利率,就是长期利率。


远期利率是指未来的利率,它可以是短期利率,也可以是长期利率。

比如,从今天算起,1年后的1年期利率,就是短期利率。从今天算起,一年后的30年利率,就是长期利率。


real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibriumreal exchange rate + (realinterest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

是一种即期的实际汇率与名义汇率的转化关系。


IRP是即期与远期名义汇率与利率的关系。

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笛子_品职助教 · 2022年05月05日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


为什么不能用irp解这题呢?


原理不同,IRP是名义利率,原理是无套利均衡。名义利率高的,贬值。

real exchange rate是实际利率,代表了实际经济产出和实际汇率。实际利率高的,升值。

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爱吃垃圾食品的猫 · 2022年05月10日

但是老师在ppt里说的这条real exchange rate公式里说的就是即期关系 不是长期关系

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年05月04日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


与irp跟ppp不同 这个问题里问的是短期内利率与风险程度变化导致短期内汇率的变动吗?

因为这里是实际利率,不是名义利率,因此与IRP有区别。

因为通胀也是一种风险溢价,所以这里与PPP一致。

这个问题问的不是短期,是长期。原理如下:


real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

实际汇率 = 均衡汇率 + 实际利率的利差 + 风险溢价之差。


对于实际的交易汇率,我们在均衡的汇率水平上要对实际利率和风险溢价因素进行区分,


实际利率水平高,说明国家的潜在GDP增速快,就会引起实际汇率升值。这点与IRP有区别,IRP是无套利均衡,这里是实际利率。

如果风险溢价比较高,意味着国家的风险很高,会造成实际汇率贬值。通胀其实是风险溢价的一种,所以在这点与PPP一致。

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爱吃垃圾食品的猫 · 2022年05月04日

但是根据irp公式不是也能推出nominal rate spread increase exchange rate也下降吗

爱吃垃圾食品的猫 · 2022年05月04日

为为什么不能用irp解这题呢?

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