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chuziyang · 2022年04月27日

第2步沒看懂,

NO.PZ2015120604000178

问题如下:

BIM is a well-developed public company and its market capitalization growth rates over past few decades are normally distributed.The population has a mean of 10% and a standard deviation of 5.4%. An investor wants to figure out the probability that BIM's average capitalization growth rate will over 12.32% in the next three years (all the data are monthly statistics).Which of the following option is most accurate?

选项:

A.

0.5%.

B.

1%.

C.

5%.

解释:

A is correct.

It is appropriate to use the central limit theroy to calculate. Standard error=5.4%/36\sqrt {\rm{36}} P(X>12.32%)=P(Z> (12.32%-10%)/0.009)=P(Z>2.58). So the corresponding probability is 0.5%.

請問答案中: P(Z> (12.32%-10%)/0.009)=P(Z>2.58),這部分用的甚麽公式和概念,爲何要有這步?謝謝。

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2022年04月27日

同学你好,

公式为正态分布标准化,这步的目的是为了查表。

​题干要计算的P(X>12.32%)是无法直接查表得出答案的,只有将其标准化变成P(Z>2.58)后,才可以通过查标准正态分布表(z表)得出结果。

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