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hyi725 · 2022年04月16日

data snooping可否中文解释下?

NO.PZ2021101401000020

问题如下:

Galic is surprised to see that some of the backtest results are unfavorable. He asks, “Why has GWP not considered strategies that perform better in backtesting?” Galic recently met with Fastlane Wealth Managers, who showed much better performance results. The portfolio manager at Fastlane told Galic that the company selects the top-performing strategies after performing thousands of backtests.

The approach used by Fastlane Wealth Managers most likely incorporates:

选项:

A.

risk parity.

B.

data snooping.

C.

cross-validation.

解释:

B is correct. The fact that the two firms’ investment performance results differ over similar time horizons using the same data and factors may be the result of selection bias. Data snooping is a type of selection bias. Fastlane Wealth Managers is most likely selecting the best-performing modeling approach and publishing its results (i.e., data snooping).

A is incorrect because risk parity is a portfolio construction technique that accounts for the volatility of each factor and the correlations of returns among all factors to be combined in the portfolio. It is not regarded as selection bias.

C is incorrect because cross-validation is a technique used in the machine learning field, as well as in backtesting investment strategies, to partition data for model training and testing. It is not considered selection bias.

谢谢

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2022年04月17日

同学你好,

data snooping指在数据集里反复的搜寻规律,直到找到“规律”为止。这种方式会造成数据的过度挖掘,得到的“规律”往往只适用于本数据集,不能推广或者用于预测。

这是一种选择偏差。本题在数据集里只选择backtesting中的top-performing strategies,没有进行向前的测试。就体现了这种过度挖掘的选择偏差。

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