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莉莉 · 2022年04月13日

请问怎么理解:high-yield spread curve tends to invert during a contraction?为什么在contraction的时候HY spread tends to invert?

NO.PZ2021120102000027

问题如下:

Which of the following regarding the shape of the credit spread curve for high-yield issuers is most accurate?

选项:

A.

High-yield credit spread curves change shape more over the cycle than investment-grade ones do and usually invert during the peak phase.

B.

Investors should exercise caution in interpreting credit spread curve shape for distressed debt issuers because their bonds tend to trade on a price rather than credit spread basis as the likelihood of default increases.

C.

High-yield credit spread curves often invert because of the empirical observation that DTS is the best way to measure high-yield bond price changes.

解释:

B is correct. Investors should exercise caution in interpreting credit spread curve shape for distressed debt issuers because their bonds tend to trade at a price close to the recovery rate.

A is incorrect because the high-yield spread curve tends to invert during a contraction, while C is incorrect because a high-yield curve inversion is related to the relationship between near-term and long-term default as opposed to DTS.

请问怎么理解:high-yield spread curve tends to invert during a contraction?为什么在contraction的时候HY spread tends to invert?

1 个答案

pzqa015 · 2022年04月13日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


经济衰退时,HYB短期违约的概率很大,所以短期的spread大,而长期(比如10年后),可能已经度过了经济周期的地点,那时候经济已经复苏,HYB的主体已经缓过来了,违约概率没有那么大了,所以长期的spread小,故经济衰退时,HYB的收益率曲线更容易flatten甚至inverted。

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