NO.PZ202109170100001402
问题如下：
What is the NPV (C$ millions) of the optimal set of investment decisions for Bouchard Industries including the production-flexibility option?
选项：
A.–C$6.34 million
C$7.43 million
C$31.03 million
解释：
B is correct. The additional NPV of adding shifts if demand is “high” is
If demand is low, the production-flexibility option will not be exercised. The
optimal decision is to add shifts only if demand is high.
Because the production-flexibility option is exercised only when demand is
high, which happens 50% of the time, the expected present value of adding
shifts is
NPV = 0.50(26.18) = C$13.09 million.
The total NPV of the initial project and the production-flexibility option is
NPV = –C$5.66 million + C$13.09 million = C$7.43 million.
The option to add shifts, handled optimally, adds sufficient value to make this a
positive-NPV project.
看了老师得答疑，我觉得概率每次都是50%对50%,那这道题目可以转化为CF0=-190，CF1=0.5*40+0.5*20=30， CF2=0.5*40+0.5*20+0.5*0+0.5*5=32.5，CF3-CF10=32.5，I/Y=10,得出一样得结果，可惜这题目题意没完全理解透导致做错
