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碧玺 · 2022年03月13日

能讲解一下这道题什么意思吗,没看懂,也不知道怎么回答

NO.PZ2021120102000009

问题如下:

An active investor enters a duration-neutral yield curve flattening trade that combines 2-year and 10-year Treasury positions. Under which of the following yield curve scenarios would you expect the investor to realize the greatest portfolio gain?

选项:

A.

Bear flattening

B.

bull flattening

C.

Yield curve inversion

解释:

C is correct. A duration-neutral flattening trade involves a short 2-year bond position and a long 10-year bond position, which have a “matched” duration or portfolio duration of zero. This portfolio will realize a gain if the slope of the yield curve—that is, the difference between short-term and long-term yields— declines.

Yield curve inversion is an extreme version of flattening in which the spread between long-term and short-term yields-to-maturity falls below zero.

The bear steepening in A involves an unchanged 2-year yield-to-maturity with a rise in the 10-year yield-to-maturity, causing a portfolio loss.

The bull flattening in B combines a constant 2-year yield-to-maturity with lower 10-year rates, resulting in a gain on the 10-year bond position and an unchanged 2-year bond position.



1 个答案

pzqa015 · 2022年03月14日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


这道题问的是,在收益率曲线flatten的变化下,手中只有2年期债与10年期债,在duration neutral的情况下,哪种收益率曲线变动下的收益更大。、

首先,要知道,flatten分为两种,一是bear flatten,二是bull flatten。

对于bear flatten,长短期利率都上涨,短期上涨幅度大于长期上涨幅度,也就是说相对于长期,短期是上涨的,相对于短期,长期是下跌的。那么如果要实现duration neutral下的主动管理,一定是short 短期,long 长期可以获利;

对于bull flatten,长短期利率都下跌,短期利率下跌幅度小于长期利率下跌幅度,也就是说相对于长期,短期还是上涨的,相对于短期,长期还是下跌的,那么仍然是short 短期,long 长期可以获利。

所以,只要是flatten,一定是short 短期,long长期可以获利,但是请注意,这里说的获利,是一个轧差后的净利润为正。

比如bear flatten,长短期利率都上涨,那么Long头寸肯定是有亏损的,只不过short 短期的收益大于Long长期的亏损,二者的收益与亏损轧差后,净利润为正。

bull flatten同理,长短期利率都下降,那么short头寸肯定是有亏损的,只不过Long长期的收益大于short短期的亏损,二者的收益与亏损轧差后,净利润为证。


所以,bear flatten与bull flatten虽然是有profit,但肯定不是最大的,那什么时候大呢,显然,短期利率上涨,short 短期有利润,长期利率下降,long长期有利润,此时,才是收益最大化,短期利率上涨与长期利率下降,就是yield curve inversion,所以选C。

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