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Dang.D · 2022年02月26日

请问为啥不选B呢?

NO.PZ2018101901000018

问题如下:

In the 1980s, Japan was viewed by many FMPs as the model economy. Although its growth began to decelerate sharply by 1990, it was not until the mid to late 1990s that FMPs’ GDP forecasts were consistently achieved. By taking several years to adapt their forecasts to the lower growth environment, FMPs exhibited which behavioral bias?

选项:

A.

Mental accounting

B.

Overconfidence

C.

Conservatism

解释:

C is correct.

Conservatism bias results in maintain or only slowly updating views and forecasts despite the presence of new information. FMPs in the 1990s were reluctant to update forecasts, despite materially different new information for several years.

没读懂题目

1 个答案

Kiko_品职助教 · 2022年02月28日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


这道题题干说:在20世纪80年代,日本被许多fmp视为经济发展的典范。尽管经济增长在1990年开始急剧减速,但直到1990年代中后期,FMPs的GDP预测才得以实现。通过几年的时间才终于使得他们的预测适应了较低的增长环境,FMPs表现出的行为偏差是什么?

从1990年的时候,日本经济就已经放缓了,但是FMP就一直保持着80年的观点,就一直觉得日本经济依然发展的很好,直到过去五六年,他们才意识到日本已经处于较低的经济增长环境了。这说明这些人观点依然保守,在有新信息的情况下仍然不愿更新预测,所以选C是最准确的。

A选项心理账户,是把财产进行分类,与题目不符合。

B是过度自信,盲目的相信自己的观点。这到题题干也没有体现。

----------------------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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