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金融民工阿聪 · 2022年02月13日

C的问题

NO.PZ2021101401000011

问题如下:

Yuen and Ruckey discuss the differences between the historical simulation and Monte Carlo simulation, then design the simulations, making key decisions at various steps. During the process, Yuen expresses a number of concerns:

Concern 3: The distribution of Factor 1 returns exhibits excess kurtosis and negative skewness.

Based on Concern 3, the Factor 1 strategy is most likely to:

选项:

A.

be favored by risk-averse investors.

B.

generate surprises in the form of negative returns.

C.

have return data that line up tightly around a trend line.

解释:

B is correct. The distribution of Factor 1 returns exhibits excess kurtosis and negative skewness (relative to the normal distribution). The excess kurtosis implies that these strategies are more likely to generate surprises, meaning extreme returns, whereas the negative skewness suggests those surprises are more likely to be negative (than positive).

A is incorrect because risk-averse investors are more likely to prefer distribution properties such as positive skew (higher probability of positive returns) and lower to moderate kurtosis (lower probability of extreme negative surprises).

The distribution of Factor 1 returns exhibits excess kurtosis and negative skewness.

C is incorrect because the distribution of Factor 1 returns exhibits excess kurtosis and negative skewness. The joint distribution of such returns is rarely multivariate normal—so, typically the means and variances of these returns and the correlations between them are insufficient to describe the joint return distribution. In other words, the return data do not line up tightly around a trend line because of fat tails and outliers.

have return data that line up tightly around a trend line.C的这句话是什么意思,解析没看懂,是不是正态和是否line up tightly around a trend line有什么关系吗

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2022年02月13日

同学你好,

C选项的意思就是由于左侧尾部存在极端值outlier,所以return不可能是紧密的围绕在均值周围的。

如果是正态分布,那95%的值都在均值周围1.96倍标准差的范围里,就是tightly around。trend line可以简单理解为均值的趋势。

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