NO.PZ2018091702000031
问题如下：
Gerhard Ludwigs founded ABC Innovations (ABC), a biotech company dedicated to small cell lung cancer research. For the past two years, ABC has been dedicated to Project M, an effort directed at developing a drug for the treatment of relapses in small cell lung cancer. Project M has delayed its Phase Two trials twice. Published results from Phase One trials have raised some concerns regarding the drug. In its last two quarterly investors’ conference calls, ABC’s CEO was very cautious in discussing expectations for Project M. ABC’s stock price decreased by over 20 percent during the past six months. Gerber believes that the research setbacks are temporary because of ABC’s past success with projects. He expects that ABC will begin Phase Two within a year, and also believes that once Project M goes into Phase Two, ABC’s stock price should reach a new 52- week high of CHF 80.
Soon after deciding to hold the stock, Gerber reads an article by ABC’s chief scientist in which certain scientific results from Project M are detailed. As a conclusion, the article states: "Although we still have some major obstacles to overcome, the Project M team has seen positive signs that a treatment for small cell lung cancer is achievable." While Gerber has difficulty interpreting the scientific results, he feels reassured after reading the concluding statement.
Today, ABC announces the news that it will no longer pursue Project M, citing early signs of failure of the project. As a result of the announcement, the stock price drops by 50 percent. Gerber is stunned. He reviews the company’s history and notes that ABC has been up front about its struggles to solve the Project M issues. Gerber now realizes that he has been ignoring all the signs and feels a tremendous regret for not having sold the foundation’s investment in ABC earlier.
Discuss how Gerber displayed conservatism bias. Cite three examples from the reading.
选项： 解释：
Conservatism bias, a cognitive error, is a belief perseverance bias in which people maintain their prior views or forecasts by inadequately incorporating new information. This cognitive error has aspects of both statistical and information-processing errors. Gerber displayed conservatism bias by maintaining his prior views on ABC without adequately incorporating new information. There are several examples of new information that was either ignored or inadequately considered:
• the delays in initiation of Phase Two trials;
• the discouraging results from Phase One;
• the cautionary language from the CEO; and
• the chief scientist’s statement indicating that there were "major obstacles to overcome."
Gerber disregarded all the negative news and cautionary language that was released by ABC. Gerber failed to incorporate the new information into his analysis of ABC. The impact was a loss to the foundation, which could have been reduced had Gerber incorporated the information into his analysis and adjusted the foundation’s holdings of ABC.
老师好，这种题型，是否就是主观题（或essay题）？谢谢。
