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金融民工阿聪 · 2022年01月15日

B错在哪?

NO.PZ2018091706000056

问题如下:

 The emerging marketcountry is more likely to engage in sterilized intervention if its:

选项:

A.

inflation rate is high 

B.

currency is undervalued 

C.

currency appreciation is caused by push factors rather than pull factors 

解释:

A country would likely choose sterilized intervention if it had a highinflation rate, because unsterilized intervention would add to the monetary base andpossibly increase inflationary pressures. B is incorrect because an undervalued currencyis likely to lessen the probability of intervention, sterilized or unsterilized, in response tocapital inflows. C is incorrect because both push and pull factors can lead to bubbleconditions, excessive exchange rate appreciation, and the unwanted build-up ofexcessive speculative positions.

解析:如果一个国家的通胀率很高,它很可能会选择冲销干预,因为未冲销干预会增加货币供给量,从而增加通胀压力。A正确。

B是不正确的,因为被低估的货币可能会降低干预的效用,无论是冲销的还是未冲销的干预。

C是不正确的,因为push以及 pull因素都可能导致泡沫状况、汇率过度升值,以及不必要的过度投机仓位。 

是不是新兴市场一般来说面临的风险主要是升值的风险?也就是怕别人冲进来抬高本地货币汇率。所以汇率较低的时候其实并不需要去采取干预,所以也就没有选择冲销/不冲销这一说,可以这么理解吗?

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2022年01月15日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


冲销干预的定义。冲销干预是政府管理汇率的重要手段之一;是指货币当局在外汇市场上进行结汇售汇的同时,通过其它货币政策工具(如国债市场上的公开市场业务)来抵消货币当局外汇交易对货币供应量的影响,使货币供应量维持不变的外汇市场干预行为。


非冲销干预是指中央银行在干预外汇市场时不采取其他金融政策与之配合,即不改变因外汇干预而造成的货币供应量的变化。


对于b项,可以理解为,冲销干预是国家自己采取自己的货币政策,而货币较低的情况下,货币当局需要考虑国际市场上的影响。那么会降低干预的影响力。


c项也可以这么理解,不管是pull还是push使得货币升值都可能会放大政策的影响


是不是新兴市场一般来说面临的风险主要是升值的风险?也就是怕别人冲进来抬高本地货币汇率。所以汇率较低的时候其实并不需要去采取干预,所以也就没有选择冲销/不冲销这一说,可以这么理解吗?

并不是,见以上解释。主要还是理解什么是冲销干预。


不过冲销干预已经是老考点了,基本上不会考察了,了解即可。

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