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hwqjulia001 · 2021年11月24日

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time

NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time 

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward 

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time

不理解,为什么 nominal spread 不是increase over time

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2021年11月24日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time

不理解,为什么 nominal spread 不是increase over time


随着时间的推移,nominal spread,应该是减少,而不是增加。


因为EM国家发展得快,DM国家发展得慢。最终EM国家与DM国家的差距会越来越小,EM国家成为DM国家。所以足够长的时间,会使nominal spread减小。


比如说日本和韩国,原本是EM国家,现在是DM国家,他们和美国之间的nominal spread就会缩小。中国几十年前也是EM国家,现在也正在与DM国家缩小差距。

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