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Ericawy · 2018年02月18日

问一道题:NO.PZ2017092702000088 [ CFA I ]

问题如下图:

   请问这道题是不是属于shortfall risk 的知识点,以及为什么答案里要用到小于等于号?

 

选项:

A.

B.

C.

解释:



1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2018年02月25日

是shortfall risk,

标准的写法应该不带等号,但是这里涉及的都是连续随机变量以及连续分布。这种变量取一个特定值的概率为0,所以带上等号并不影响计算的结果。

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NO.PZ2017092702000088 问题如下 A portfolio hexpectereturn of 7% with a stanrviation of 13%. For investor with a minimum annureturn target of 4%, the probability ththe portfolio return will fail to meet the target is closest to: A.33%. B.41%. C.59% B is correct.B is correct. using Excel's NORM.S. ST() function, we get NORM.S. ST((4%-7%)/13%) = 40.87%. The probability ththe portfolio willl unrperform the target is about 41%.本题要求的P(X<4%)的概率。第一步先做标准化后才能查表。然后代入标准化的公式即可。-------------------------------------------------------------------------There are three steps, whiinvolve stanrzing the portfolio return: First, subtrathe portfolio mereturn from easi of the inequality: P(Portfolio return – 7%) ≤ 4% – 7%). Secon vi easi of the inequality the stanrviation of portfolio return: P[(Portfolio return – 7%)/13% ≤ (4% – 7%)/13%] = P(Z ≤ –0.2308) = N(–0.2308). Thir recognize thon the left-hansi we have a stanrnormvariable, noteZ anN(–x) = 1 – N(x). Rounng –0.2308 to –0.23 for use with the cumulative stribution function (c) table, we have N(–0.23) = 1 – N(0.23) = 1 – 0.5910 = 0.409, approximately 41 percent. The probability ththe portfolio will unrperform the target is about 41 percent. 求问这道题0.59是不是要靠查表啊?题目没有给出表是不是就无法求出0.59?

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