请问如何区分overconfidence和illusion of control?

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：

辨析偏差最好的方法，就是回到题目。透过真题、课后题、MOCK 题，总结协会考查偏差结果的方式

1

先说 illusion of control，经典的偏差结果有两种

1.1 投资自己所任职公司的股票

"People invest in companies that they may feel they have some control over, like the companies they work for, leading them to hold concentrated positions."

参考原版书 P65 "Consequences of Illusion of Control" 的第二段

研究人员发现，一些投资者喜欢投资于他们可能觉得自己有一定控制权的公司，比如他们工作的公司，导致他们持有集中的头寸。事实上，大多数投资者对他们所工作的公司几乎没有控制权

"Researchers have found that some investors prefer to invest in companies that they may feel they have some control over, like the companies they work for, leading them to hold concentrated positions. In fact, most investors have almost no control over the companies they work for."

考查题目：真题-2012-4-B，收录于经典题 R8 的 1.1 题

1.2 认为复杂的模型有助于提升投资组合业绩，有两道题目考查过

1.2.1 

分析师倾向于僵化地坚持基于专有估值模型的资产选择 

"tends to rigidly adhere to asset selections based on the proprietary valuation model"

考查题目：课后题 R9-12

1.2.2

分析师将准确性归功于公司高度复杂的预测模型，包括敏感性分析和来自多个数据库的类似信息的确认

"She attributes the accuracy to her firm’s highly complex forecast models, including sensitivity analysis and the confirmation of similar information sourced from multiple databases"

考查题目：MOCK-2018-AM-11，收录于经典题 R8 的 1.14 题

1.3 还有一个偏差结果：人们在预测偶然事件的结果时表现出令人惊讶的巨大确定性

"People displayed surprisingly great certainty in their predictions for the outcomes of chance events."

考查题目：课后题 R8-8

个人认为这个偏差结果，并不是其最经典的，建议还是把握上面两个经典偏差结果；这个结果是因为课后题考到了，所以了解一下即可

2

再说 Overconfidence，经典的偏差结果有两大类

2.1 第一类，包含四大偏差结果，分别是

2.1.1 对结果分配的概率太高，因为对自己的判断太有把握

"The probabilities that FMPs assign to outcomes are too high because they are too certain of their judgments."

2.1.2 为其投资预测所指定的置信区间太窄

"The confidence intervals that FMPs assign to their investment predictions are too narrow."

2.1.3 低估了风险，特别是下行风险

Underestimating risks, particularly downside risks

2.1.4 持有分散性差的投资组合

Hold poorly diversified portfolios

考查题目：真题-2018-4-A，收录于经典题 R8 的 1.15 题，综合考查了上述四个偏差

2.2 第二类，包含导致 Overconfidence 的两个偏差：self-attribution 和 illusion of knowledge

2.2.1 self-attribution 

成功被归因于个人的技能，而失败则被归因于外部因素

"People take credit for successes and assign responsibilities for failure" 

考查题目：课后题-R8-6；真题-2017-5-D，收录于经典题 R8 的 1.8 题

2.2.2 illusion of knowledge

高估自己的知识水平和能力

"Overestimate their knowledge levels and abilities"

考查题目：课后题-R8-2

还有一道课后题 R8-10，综合考查了上述偏差结果

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