NO.PZ2018062003000141
问题如下：
If interest rate spread between long-term government bonds and overnight borrowing rate is narrowing, new orders for captial goods begins to decline, the economy has reached its :
选项：
A. peak.
B. recession.
C. recovery.
解释：
A is correct.
Interest rate spread between long-term government bonds and overnight borrowing rate and new orders for captial goods are leading indicators, the decline of them means the economy has reached the peak.
考点： economic indicators
解析：长期债与隔夜拆解利率之间的利差缩小表明短期利率上涨（抑制投资）或者长期利率下降（人们对于未来经济看衰），经济开始走弱。
同样new orders for captial goods的下降也表明总需求在下降，经济由强转弱。那么经济已经经历过了顶点，A选项入选。
根据题意不是应该选择衰退吗？为什么要选peak