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一只可爱的猪 · 2021年09月21日

这道题

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NO.PZ201601050100000303

问题如下:

3. Which of the following market developments would be most favorable for Subscriber 3's trading plan?

选项:

A.

A narrower interest rate differential.

B.

A higher forward premium for INR/USD.

C.

Higher volatility in INR/USD spot rate movements.

解释:

B is correct.

Subscriber 3's carry trade strategy is equivalent to trading the forward rate bias, based on the historical evidence that the forward rate is not the center of the distribution for the spot rate. Applying this bias involves buying currencies selling at a forward discount and selling currencies trading at a forward premium. So a higher forward premium on the lower yielding currencythe USD, the base currency in the INR/USD quotewould effectively reflect a more profitable trading opportunity. That is, a higher premium for buying or selling the USD forward is associated with a lower US interest rate compared to India. This would mean a wider interest rate differential in favor of Indian instruments, and hence potentially more carry trade profits.

A is incorrect because Subscriber 3's carry trade strategy depends on a wide interest rate differential between the high-yield country (India) and the low-yield country (the United States). The differential should be wide enough to compensate for the unhedged currency risk exposure.

C is incorrect because a guide to the carry trade‘s riskiness is the volatility of spot rates on the involved currencies, with rapid movements in exchange rates often associated with a panicked unwinding of carry trades. All things being equal, higher volatility is worse for carry trades.

道道题目中的Higher forward premium ,难道不是currency的吗?

不是未来USD会升值的意思吗

1 个答案

Hertz_品职助教 · 2021年09月22日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


同学你好~

B选项:higher forward premium或者表述为larger forward premium,是两国利差变大的意思,所以在carry trade中看到这个表述就直接等同为两国利差变大。

可以从下面这个角度来理解:

(1)我们可以用covered interest rate parity(抛补的利率平价公式)来解释,根据. covered interest rate parity:F/S0=(1+r_A)/(1+r_B) (汇率标价形式为A/B); 其中r_A

(2)得到F

(3)所以,如果F/S0=(1+r_A)/(1+r_B)这个公式中r_A

2. 执行carry trade的条件有二,一是两国利差大,二是汇率变化很小。因此A选项和C选项的表述是错误的

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

Shafengler · 2023年04月27日

Higher forward premium 或者表述为Larger forward premium,都是两国的利差变得更大的意思,这个表述需要掌握~ long term,利率高的货币叫做forward discount currency

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NO.PZ201601050100000303 问题如下 3. Whiof the following market velopments woulmost favorable for Subscriber 3's trang plan? A.A narrower interest rate fferential. B.A higher forwarpremium for INR/US C.Higher volatility in INR/USspot rate movements. B is correct.Subscriber 3's carry tra strategy is equivalent to trang the forwarrate bias, baseon the historicevinththe forwarrate is not the center of the stribution for the spot rate. Applying this biinvolves buying currencies selling a forwarscount anselling currencies trang a forwarpremium. So a higher forwarpremium on the lower yielng currency—the US the base currenin the INR/USquote—wouleffectively reflea more profitable trang opportunity. This, a higher premium for buying or selling the USforwaris associatewith a lower US interest rate compareto InThis woulmea wir interest rate fferentiin favor of Ininstruments, anhenpotentially more carry tra profits.A is incorrebecause Subscriber 3's carry tra strategy pen on a wi interest rate fferentibetween the high-yielcountry (Inanthe low-yielcountry (the UniteStates). The fferentishoulwi enough to compensate for the unheecurrenrisk exposure.C is incorrebecause a gui to the carry tra‘s riskiness is the volatility of spot rates on the involvecurrencies, with rapimovements in exchange rates often associatewith a panickeunwinng of carry tras. All things being equal, higher volatility is worse for carry tras.中文解析Bhigher forwarpremium或者表述为larger forwarpremium,是两国利差变大的意思,所以在carry tra中看到这个表述就直接等同为两国利差变大。可以从下面这个角度来理解(1)我们可以用covereinterest rate parity(抛补的利率平价公式)来,根据. covereinterest rate parityF/S0=(1+r_A)/(1+r_(汇率标价形式为A/B); 其中r_A r_所以F S0(借A投B)。(2)得到F S0,又因为标价形式是A/B,可得高利率的货币B将来是贬值的(因为F S0),因此利率高的货币叫做forwarscount currency,而利率低的货币A就会升值,叫做 forwarpremium currency。(3)所以,如果F/S0=(1+r_A)/(1+r_B)这个公式中r_A r_B的程度越大,就说明F S的程度越大,对应的低利率货币A就会有更大的forwarpremium。而r_A r_B程度越大,就说明二者的利差越大2. 执行carry tra的条件有二,一是两国利差大,二是汇率变化很小。因此A和C的表述是错误的 答案是large forwarpremiun on the US这道题首先borrow的是US 投资的是印度资产,到期的时候一定要把印度的资产换成US资产,如果US大幅升值,未来将会直接导致亏损,怎么还有有利呢。

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