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Yuyu · 2021年08月29日

这个underfunded status 不需要用更risky的投资弥补么?

NO.PZ2019100901000014

问题如下:

Dianna Mark is the chief financial officer of Antiliaro, a relatively mature textile production company headquartered in Italy. All of its revenues come from Europe, but the company is losing sales to its Asian competitors. Earnings have been steady but not growing, and the balance sheet has taken on more debt in the past few years in order to maintain liquidity. Mark reviews the following facts concerning the company’s defined benefit (DB) pension plan:

●The DB plan currently has €1 billion in assets and is underfunded by €100 million in relation to the projected benefit obligation (PBO) because of investment losses.

●The company to date has made regular contributions.

●The average employee age is 50 years, and the company has many retirees owing to its longevity.

●The duration of the plan’s liabilities (which are all Europe based) is 10 years.

●The discount rate applied to these liabilities is 6%.

●There is a high correlation between the operating results of Antiliaro and pension asset returns.

Determine whether the risk tolerance of the DB plan is below average or above average. Justify your response with two reasons.

解释:

the DB plan is below average



如果不投资更改风险的资产,按照题目叙述应该没办法收入支撑支出?
2 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2021年09月01日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


因为何老师提到过几种underfunded的情况 其中有一种就是靠投资更高风险产品来弥补 这个点如何结合题目来看?


Underfunded的时候,可以采用更加激进的投资,如讲义下红框。但是如果是这种情况的话,题目一定要出现以下的描述:“基金想要通过投资来弥补缺口,企业无法资助更多的Contribution”。那在这种情况下,是有可能Underfunded时,采取更加激进的投资。


结合这道题的话,这道题没有出现以上的描述,可以判断养老金的缺口无需用更激进的投资补充,所以初步判断这道题:Underfunded,采取更加保守的投资。


第二个是本题的企业有稳定盈利(Earnings have been steady),且企业一直在缴纳Contribution(the company to date has made regular contributions.),那说明就算这道题的基金采取了保守的投资,但养老金的缺口可以用其他途径填补,如企业的利润(Contribution)来补足。所以Underfunded时,不采取激进投资完全OK。


第三点就是,判断Below average还是Above average时,一定要综合结合题目的各种信息,从其他信息来看(企业盈利与养老金有较高Correlation,企业员工年龄较大,基金有投资亏损)等,以上的信息都可以帮助证实是Underfunded采用保守的策略。

那综合一下,本题就是Below average。


另外就是,一般情况下,我们碰到的99%的题目,都是Underfunded导致保守的策略,只有极少数的题目会出现Underfunded导致激进的投资,如果要出现“Underfunded导致激进投资”这种题目,那题干一定会描述:基金只能通过养老金的投资来弥补亏损,企业无法提供更多的Contribution,类似这种句子。


最后就是,判断这种,一定要综合题目给的信息,不能单靠一个信息来判断激进还是保守,一般题目绝大多数信息都会给出一个明确的答案的。

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发亮_品职助教 · 2021年08月31日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


如果不投资更改风险的资产,按照题目叙述应该没办法收入支撑支出?


这道问Risk tolerance高低,Risk tolerance是由Portfolio的客观条件决定的。

例如,Investment horizon可以决定Risk tolerance,越长的投资期对应越高的Risk tolerance;Liquidity needs也会决定Risk tolerance,这些都是Portfolio客观的条件。


对于Pension funded status也同理,这也是基金的客观条件。Underfunded时,Risk tolerance低;Overfunded时,Risk tolerance高,这个结论是一定成立的。碰到这种情景(题目),可用这个判断。


由于这道题只需让判断Risk tolerance,结合这道题的信息,那就是Underfunded → Risk tolerance below average。


如果题目额外有说,Pension fund想要通过激进地投资来弥补缺口,将Underfunded的基金提升至Overfunded,然后没有给其他信息,例如,题目没有说基金无法获得企业的Contirbution,那此时,基金的Risk tolerance依然是Below average,因为基金的客观条件不允许他的Risk tolerance above average,至于养老金的缺口可以从企业的Contribution来补充,并不一定完全由投资收益来填补。那这种情况,客观条件就决定了只能是Below average。


注意,就Pension fund这里,绝大多数情况都是:Underfunded(Overfunded)→ Risk tolerance below (Above) average → 更加保守的投资(更加激进的投资)。

当Underfunded时,采取保守的投资,不足的缺口可以用企业的Contribution来补充。所以,养老金的收入来源并非只有投资收益,还有企业新缴纳的Contribution。


但也存在一些情景,就是Underfunded时,题目有说明,企业无法额外缴纳Contribution,只能通过投资收益来补足缺口,那这种情况下,也存在Underfunded时,激进的投资,不过这种情况(题目)非常少见,如果是这种情况,题目会有说明,如会说明,只能通过投资收益补充缺口。

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Yuyu · 2021年08月31日

谢谢 因为何老师提到过几种underfunded的情况 其中有一种就是靠投资更高风险产品来弥补 这个点如何结合题目来看?

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