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Wendy · 2021年07月27日

基准利率下降,spread不是会上升吗?

NO.PZ2018120301000052

问题如下:

Li is a junior credit analyst in a wealth management firm. His client invests in high-yield bonds, one of which is issued by ABC Corporation. This high-yield bond has a 10-year maturity, a modified duration of 8.87 and a spread duration of 8.87. In a meeting with this client, Li made the following statements of the high-yield bond holdings:

"this bond has a modified duration of 8.87 and a spread duration of 8.87, if the interest rate is expected to decrease 10bps, and the spread is expected to decrease 10 bps as well due to the company’s increased creditworthiness, the bond’s price will not change in response to this interest rate and credit spread changes."

According to Li’s statement, which of the following is correct?

选项:

A.

Li is correct, the bond price will not change.

B.

Li is wrong, because the bond price will decrease due to the decreased interest rate and spread.

C.

Li is wrong, because the bond price will increase due to the decreased interest rate and spread.

解释:

C is correct.

考点:modified duration和Spread duration的理解

解析:由于利率变动对债券价格的影响,可以用Modified duration来衡量,根据公式,可知债券价格上升:10bps ×8.87;同时由于债券的Spread减少带来的价格上升为:10 bps×8.87;所以综合来看利率下降、Spread减少对债券的影响为:2×10bps ×8.87.

因此C选项正确。

老师不是讲,基准利率上升,spread下降吗?互相有一定的抵消作用,high-yield bond抵消作用更明显,所以类似equity吗?这道题条件怎么是基准利率下降,spread也下降呢?而且下降幅度是一样的

1 个答案

pzqa015 · 2021年07月27日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


同学你好,你说的没错,根据yC=yB+spread,我们观察到了spread与yB变化负相关这样一个现象,一种解释是基准利率下降,表明经济已经进入recession,此时,市场避险情绪增加,投资者纷纷去买国债,抛售公司债,导致公司债价格下跌,spread变大,所以,我们有“yB下降(上升),则spread上升(下降)”这样一个结论,这种现象使得yB的变化不能完全传导至yC,△yc<△yB,这种现象在HYB身上表现的更明显。

但请注意,本题有点陷阱,题干是这样说的:yB下降10BP,同时,由于发债主体的信用质量变好,spread也下降10BP,相当于出现了一个与我们通常观察到的现象相反常的现象,题干问基于这种反常现象,债券的价格如何变化。

既然yB下降10bp,spread也下降10bp,所以yc下降20bp,若duration=8.87,则债券价格上涨率为0.2%*8.87。


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