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潜在持证人 · 2021年07月12日

看到这道题时完全没思路不知道考什么

NO.PZ2018103102000120

问题如下:

Matt is preparing to evaluate the value of Company M`s equity by using the two-stage FCFF model. The growth rates for the first three years are estimated at 5% and then it may grow at 2.5% per year into the indefinite future. The most recent FCFF is $2,000 million and the company is in the 30% tax bracket. The relevant information is shown in the following table. Determine whether the common stock is fairly valued, overvalued or undervalued?

选项:

A.

undervalued.

B.

overvalued.

C.

fairly valued.

解释:

A is correct.

考点:Valuation Models.

解析:先计算WACC = wd × rd × (1–T) + (wp × rp) + (we × re)

= (15,000/40,000)(0.06)(1– 0.3) + (5,000/40,000)(0.04) + (20,000/40,000)(0.1)

= 7.08%

PV3=FCFF3×(1+g)rg=2000×1.053×(1+2.5%)7.08%2.5%=51,815.09millionPV_3=\frac{FCFF_3\times\left(1+g\right)}{r-g}=\frac{2000\times1.05^3\times\left(1+2.5\%\right)}{7.08\%-2.5\%}=51,815.09million

PV=21001.0708+22051.07082+2315.25+51,815.091.07083=47,971.73millionPV=\frac{2100}{1.0708}+\frac{2205}{1.0708^2}+\frac{2315.25+51,815.09}{1.0708^3}=47,971.73million

V common stock = 47,971.73 – 15,000 – 5,000 = $27,971.73 million

大于市场价值20,000 million,所以common stock被低估。

我在看到这道题的时候完全没思路该怎么做,从哪入手解,考的什么考点

1 个答案

韩韩_品职助教 · 2021年07月13日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


同学你好;


其实这个题目的考点已经比较清晰了,你看第一句:Matt is preparing to evaluate the value of Company M`s equity by using the two-stage FCFF model.是不是上来就告诉我们用两阶段的FCFF模型来估值,然后问我们 common stock 是否高估?那就是两阶段FCFF模型求出来的是firm value,再减去债务的市场价值,就是股权的估值,然后去跟现在的股权市场价值去比较,判断高估还是低估即可。

大体思路了解了,就是去找具体条件,最近一期的FCFF=2000m,第一阶段g=5%,第二阶段g=2.5%(永续增长),然后就是WACC不知道,再根据已知条件求WACC即可。

所以,遇到题目的时候,建议不要紧张,读题读到关键词(比如本题的using the two-stage FCFF )不够敏感就标注出来,可以帮助自己快速理清思路;再就是可能还是对两阶段FCFF模型的基础知识有所欠缺,可能无法快速破题,建议强化的知识点还是要多看。

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