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刘猛 · 2021年07月10日

老师,为什么B选项不对呢

NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time 

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward 

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


在答案列的公式中,右边第2项是real interest rate之差,而不是答案中所说的nominal interest rate呀。

课件上与nominal interest rate相关的公式是uncovered interest rate parity,E(St) - S0 = Rx -Ry。如果是这样的话,看起来好像B也是对的呀

2 个答案

丹丹_品职答疑助手 · 2021年07月13日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


同学你好,我的解析nominal interest rate=real interest rate + risk premium,这interest rate可以认为是投资者要求投资的回报率,不是单纯的一个收益率,所以拆分成上述形式,其中risk premium可能包含信用利差、期限利差等

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

丹丹_品职答疑助手 · 2021年07月11日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


同学你好,本题考查的就是解析中的公式,nominal interest rate=real interest rate + risk premium

这个公式的思路是一个国家的汇率水平和实际利率水平之差及两国风险溢价之间的关系。

一个国家汇率水平与其长期均衡汇率水平正相关,与真实利率水平之差正相关,而与两国风险溢价水平成负相关。

可以理解为,如果real interest rate高,有助于吸引资本本 资本升值,而风险溢价高说明风险高会造成币值贬值

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

刘猛 · 2021年07月12日

老师nominal interest rate 难道不是 real interest rate + inflation 吗。。

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