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PaisleyPPx · 2021年06月25日

老师

  1. CFA II
  2. Equity

NO.PZ2018103102000042

问题如下：

Jacques is the portfolio manager of AB pension and she recently consider adding PZ Inc. (New York Stock Exchange: PZ) to its portfolio. After carefully considering the characteristics of the company and its competitors, she believes the company will have extraordinary growth for the next 4 years and normal growth thereafter. So, she has concluded that a two-stage DDM is the most appropriate for valuing the stock. PZ’s total dividends paid on 2017  was $0.22. She believes that the growth rate will be 12 percent the next 4 years and 6 percent afterwards. The estimated that the required return is 9 percent. What is the terminal value of the stock based on this approach?

选项：

A.

$12.23.

B.

$20.12.

C.

$31.09.

解释：

A is correct.

考点：DDM,The Gordon Growth Model Equation The & Implied Dividend Growth Rate

解析：A是正确的。如表所示，终值V4= $12.23。

老师 teiminal value为什么是求GGM的值 题目是读懂了 但是问题没明白。

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3 个答案

王园圆_品职助教 · 2023年05月21日

嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：


同学你好，请看以下Excel的计算过程，助教这里重新算了一遍，解析的计算是没有错的

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来，我们正在朝着它而去，加油！

B_Pang · 2023年05月21日

答案中给的表格数据最后V4的现值计算错了，应该是10.8661

合计也错了

韩韩_品职助教 · 2021年06月26日

嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：


同学你好，terminal value就是最后一年把股票卖出去的价格，那么我们的投资期是4年，所以求的就是4年以后的价格，

就是这个题目当中的V4，这个先定位好。

然后就是如何求V4，我们求V4的时候，使用的方法是GGM，因为站在4时点来看，股利进入永续增长，那么就可以套用GGM公式，V4=D5/（R-进入永续增长的G），然后D5我们不是已知的，就需要用D0一年年推演得到，那么就是这里的0.22*1.12^4*1.06，这就是D5，然后9%-6%就是Re-永续增长的g。

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虽然现在很辛苦，但努力过的感觉真的很好，加油！

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