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PaisleyPPx · 2021年06月03日

老师

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201512020300000901

问题如下:

Based on Exhibit 1, Olabudo should:

选项:

A.

conclude that the inflation predictions are unbiased.

B.

reject the null hypothesis that the slope coefficient equals 1.

C.

reject the null hypothesis that the intercept coefficient equals 0.

解释:

A is correct. If the consensus inflation forecast is unbiased, then the intercept, b0, should equal 0, and the slope coefficient, b1, should equal 1. The t-statistic for the intercept coefficient is 0.5351, which is less than the critical t-value of 2.0, so the intercept coefficient is not statistically different than 0. To test whether the slope coefficient equals 1, the t-statistic is calculated as: t=–1.0968

Because the absolute value of the t-statistic of –1.0968 is less than the critical t-value of 2.0, the slope coefficient is not statistically different than 1. Therefore, Olabudo can conclude that the inflation forecasts are unbiased.

老师 b0的原假设为什么等于0 b1为什么等于1 ?

表1中给出了b1的t检验统计量了 为什么还要自己算?

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2021年06月04日

同学你好,

根据题干条件,写出用于预测的方程为:

Actual US CPI =b0 + b1 CPI consensus forecast,

通过方程可以看出,当b0=0,b1=1时,就相当于Actual US CPI =CPI consensus forecast。这时预测得出的CPI(CPI consensus forecast)正好等于了真实CPI(Actual US CPI)。这就说明了预测是准确的没有偏差的(unbiased)。

所以检验的是b0=0和b1=1。

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表1中给出的b1的t检验统计量对应的是H0:b1=0,但这道题要求的是H0:b1=1,所以要重新根据b1=1来计算t统计量。

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