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丁洁Amy · 2021年05月30日

我的dividend在折现的时候多除了一个1.08

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NO.PZ201710200100000202

问题如下:

2. Using her first valuation approach and Exhibit 1, Withers’s forecast of the per share stock value of Ukon Corporation at the end of 2017 should be closest to:

选项:

A.

EUR 48.

B.

EUR 50.

C.

EUR 51

解释:

C is correct based on Withers’s assumptions applied to the dividend valuation model. The stock value as of the end of 2017 equals the present value of all future dividends in 2018 through 2021 plus the present value of the terminal value at the end of 2021. The forecasted stock value equals EUR 51.254:


57.980

60.795

44.686

2022

2.815(1.03) = 2.899




Total




51.254

The terminal value at the end of 2021 is calculated using the dividend in the first year beyond the first stage, divided by the difference between the required rate of return and the growth rate in the second stage.

Terminal value at end of 2021 = 2.815*(1.03)/ ( 0.08−0.03 ) =57.980

老师好,


我在对比自己做的逻辑和答案时发现,我每年的dividend都比答案解析多除了一个1.08,且我还考虑了2017年的dividend.

我想说说为何我当时对18年的dividend除了(1.08的平方),是因为题干说所有的dividend都是在年末付的,所以如果折去2017年就是得平方。

同理,2017年的红利是在2017年末也就是2018年初付的,所以我也考虑了2017年的红利,且我还给它除了个1.08。


请老师帮忙答疑,谢谢

1 个答案
已采纳答案

追风少年_ 品职助教 · 2021年05月31日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


同学,这道题求的是2017年年末,也就是2018年年初的V,所以首先我们就不能考虑2017年的Div,老师举个例子:老师明天要卖给你一个苹果,但是老师今天把苹果咬了一口,同学来买老师的苹果的时候还愿意完整的价格买嘛,肯定是按照咬了一口的价格来买。同理,对于公司估值的时候,我们估值2018年年初的V,这个时候我们已经知道了公司会发行2017年的股利,这个股利我们拿不到,我们也就不会把2017年的股利加进来一起估值。

其次,我们知道2018年末的DIv,只要折现一次就是2018年初或者2017年末的现值,不需要折现两次哈。


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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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