为何用17和H模型得到的13.7作比较呢？

NO.PZ201512300100000905 问题如下 AssorteFun a UK-baseglobally versifieequity mutufun is consiring aing TalismEnergy In(Toronto StoExchange: TLM) to its portfolio. Talismis inpennt upstreoil angcompany heauarterein Calgary, Cana. It is one of the largest oil angcompanies in Cana anhoperations in severcountries. Bribson, analyst the mutufun hbeen assignethe task of estimating a fair value of Talisman. bson is aware of severapproaches thcoulusefor this purpose. After carefully consiring the characteristiof the company anits competitors, he believes the company will have extraornary growth for the next few years annormgrowth thereafter. So, he hconclutha two-stage M is the most appropriate for valuing the stock. Talismpays semi-annuvin. The totvin ring 2006, 2007, an2008 have been C$0.114, C$0.15, anC$0.175, respectively. These imply a growth rate of 32 percent in 2007 an17 percent in 2008. bson believes ththe growth rate will 14 percent in the next year. He hestimateththe first stage will inclu the next eight years. bson is using the CAPM to estimate the requirereturn on equity for Talisman. He hestimateththe beta of Talisman, measureagainst the S P/TSX Composite Inx (formerly TSE 300 Composite Inx), is 0.84. The Canarisk-free rate, measurethe annuyielon the 10-yegovernment bon is 4.1 percent. The equity risk premium for the Canamarket is estimate5.5 percent. Baseon these tbson hestimateththe requirereturn on Talismstois 0.041 + 0.84(0.055) = 0.0872 or 8.72 percent. bson is ing the analysis in January 2009 anthe stoprithtime is C$17. bson realizes theven within the two-stage M, there coulsome variations in the approach. He woullike to explore how these variations affethe valuation of the stock. Specifically, he wants to estimate the value of the stofor eaof the following approaches separately. I. The vingrowth rate will 14 percent throughout the first stage of eight years. The vingrowth rate thereafter will 7 percent.II. Insteof using the estimatestable growth rate of 7 percent in the seconstage, bson wants to use his estimate theight years later Talisman’s stowill worth 17 times its earnings per share (trailing P/E of 17). He expects ththe earnings retention ratio thtime will 0.70.III. In contrast to the first approaabove in whithe growth rate clines abruptly from 14 percent in the eighth yeto 7 percent in the ninth, the growth rate woulcline linearly from 14 percent in the first yeto 7 percent in the ninth.5. Baseon the thirapproa(the H-mol), the stois: A.unrvalue B.fairly value C.Overvalue C is correct.Using the H-molV0=(1+gL)+H(gS−gL)r−gLV_0=\frac{0(1+g_L)+0H(g_S-g_L)}{r-g_L}V0​=r−gL​​(1+gL​)+​H(gS​−gL​)​Where=0.175R=0.0872H=4gS=0.14gL=0.07V0=0.175(1.07)+0.175(4)(0.14−0.07)0.0872−0.07=13.7355V_0=\frac{0.175(1.07)+0.175(4)(0.14-0.07)}{0.0872-0.07}=13.7355V0​=0.0872−0.070.175(1.07)+0.175(4)(0.14−0.07)​=13.7355The market priis C$17, whiis greater thC$13.7355. So, the stois overvaluein the market. 如果可以定性判断，麻烦详解一下思路。谢谢

老师好 虽然题中提到是八年 但就从题干来看the growth rate woulcline linearly from 14% in the first yeto $7in the ninth year. 因为是从第1 年到第九年，所以图中切一刀切在时间点8 上是吗? 该题的图该怎么画？谢谢。

这个题不是到第九年吗？为什么H不是4.5呢?如果到第二年就是1，第三年就是1.5，第四年就是2，那到第九年应该是4.5呀，虽然对这道题的答案没影响

这个可以当作结论来记吗？