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猫猫酱 · 2021年04月28日

计算结果

NO.PZ2019103001000056

问题如下:

Edgarton evaluates the Fund’s positions from Exhibit 1 along with two of his pro forma portfolios, which are summarized in Exhibit 2:

Edgarton expects a steepening yield curve, with short-term yields rising by 1.00% and long-term yields rising by more than 1.00%.

Based on Exhibits 1 and 2, which of the following portfolios is most likely to have the best performance given Edgarton’s yield curve expectations?

选项:

A.

Current Portfolio

B.

Pro Forma Portfolio 1

C.

Pro Forma Portfolio 2

解释:

C is correct.

Given Edgarton’s expectation for a steepening yield curve, the best strategy is to shorten the portfolio duration by more heavily weighting shorter maturities. Pro Forma Portfolio 2 shows greater partial duration in the 1- and 3-year maturities relative to the current portfolio and the least combined exposure in the 10- and 30-year maturities of the three portfolios. The predicted change is calculated as follows:

Predicted change = Portfolio par amount × partial PVBP × (-curve shift in bps)/100

老师,我算出来怎么还是portfolio1下降更少?

3 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2021年05月06日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


好的。不用客气

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

猫猫酱 · 2021年05月02日

谢谢老师,我的计算器自动Reset了,我现在调成AOS就好了,谢谢老师

发亮_品职助教 · 2021年05月01日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


老师,我算出来怎么还是portfolio1下降更少?


Portfolio 2最少。我用Excel大概算了下,Current portfolio下降:5,847,250; Portfolio 1下降 5,991,000;Portfolio 2下降5,723,250

所以Portfolio的价值下降最低。


下面以portfolio 2为例,计算一下这道题的非平行移动对portfolio 2的影响,其他2个Portfolio同理:

从表1得到,Portfolio的market value是:50,000,000=50 million


另外表格里的Partial PVPB是每100面值债券的Partial PVBP(原版书的使用习惯),我们需要给Partial PVBP先除以100,换算成每1元债券的Partial PVBP。统一数量级之后,Portfolio par amount才能与Partial PVBP相乘。


1-year利率上升1%,即上升100bps,portfolio 2的价值变动为:50 million × (0.0021/100) × 100bps = 105,000

3-year利率上升1%,portfolio 2价值变动为:50 million × (0.0061/100) × 100bps = 305,000

5-year利率上升1.25%,即上升125bps,portfolio 2的价值变动为:50 million × (0.0095/100) × 125bps = 593,750

10-year利率上升1.60%,portfolio 2的价值变动为:50 million × (0.0159/100) × 160bps = 1,272,000

30-year利率上升1.75%,portfolio 2的价值变动为:50 million × (0.0394/100) × 175bps = 3,447,500


把以上各个利率点的变动对组合的价值影响加总,就是在非平行移动时,Portfolio2 的表现:

105,000 + 305,000 + 593,750+1,272,000+3,447,500=5,723,250


Portfolio 1与Current portfolio的计算方法同理。最终可以算出来Portfolio 2的表现最好。

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

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