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cherry0540 · 2021年04月22日

对解释不太理解

NO.PZ2015121810000034

问题如下:

An analyst, who measures yield as a combination of interest rates and premiums, observes an upward-sloping, default-free government bond nominal yield curve. Which of the following statements is correct?

选项:

A.

Interest rates must be expected to rise in the future.

B.

Bond risk premiums must be expected to rise in the future.

C.

Expectations relating to the future direction of interest rates are indeterminate.

解释:

C is correct.

An upward sloping yield curve may be caused by a combination of expected rate increases and positive bond risk premiums. It may also be a combination of expectations that interest rates will be unchanged in the future coupled with positive bond risk premiums. Lastly, an upward sloping yield curve may actually be a reflection of expected rate cuts that are more than offset by the existence of positive bond risk premiums. So, expectations relating to the future direction of interest rates are indeterminate. 

考点:yield curve

解析:

债券市场的收益率可以简单地划分为两部分,一是risk-free interest rate,二是risk premium。如果收益率曲线表现为上升,那么有三种可能:

1.risk-free interest rate和risk premium同时上升;

2.risk-free interest rate上升,risk premium下降,但是前者上升的幅度超过后者下降的幅度;

3.risk-free interest rate下降,risk premium上升,但是前者下降的幅度小于后者上升的幅度。

因此仅观察债券市场的收益率曲线不能判断未来预测利率变化的方向。

老师,我理解,题目中说的是观察到了国债的向上倾斜的nominal收益率曲线,国债的收益率为rf+BEI,收益率曲线向上倾斜说明经济向好,因而rf增加,θ增加,π大于0,所以rf和BEI都是增加的 哪里出了问题呢?
1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2021年04月22日

同学你好,

这道题目问的是观察到了yield curve向上倾斜,问这是什么原因导致的。

从选项来看,把yield拆分为了Rf+risk premium,所以yield增加的原因既可能是Rf在增加,也有可能是RP在增加,所以具体是哪个导致的不一定。

收益率曲线向上倾斜不能说明经济向好。经济处于recession的时候也是向上倾斜的。


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