开发者:上海品职教育科技有限公司 隐私政策详情

应用版本:4.2.11(IOS)|3.2.5(安卓)APP下载

Louis · 2021年04月21日

请问future consumption outcomes到底是什么

NO.PZ2015121810000042

问题如下:

Risk-averse investors demanding a large equity risk premium are most likely expecting their future consumption outcomes and equity returns to be:

选项:

A.

uncorrelated.

B.

positively correlated.

C.

negatively correlated.

解释:

B is correct.

If investors demand high equity risk premiums, they are likely expecting their future consumption and equity returns to be positively correlated. The positive correlation indicates that equities will exhibit poor hedging properties, as equity returns will be high (e.g., pay off) during "good times" and will be low (e.g., not pay off) during "bad times". In other words, the covariance between risk-averse investors’ inter-temporal rates of substitution and the expected future prices of equities is highly negative, resulting in a positive and large equity risk premium. This is the case because, in good times, when equity returns are high, the marginal value of consumption is low. Similarly, in bad times, when equity returns are low, the marginal value of consumption is high. Holding all else constant, the larger the magnitude of the negative covariance term, the larger the risk premium.

考点: equity risk premium & consumption outcomes

解析:问的是股票收益与实体经济的相关性,两者是正相关的,因为实体经济变好,股票收益率增加。正因为两者正相关,所以在经济下滑时,股票不是很好的对冲经济下滑的工具,所以要使风险厌恶的投资者投资股票,就必须给他们更高的风险补偿。

老师这道题的答案很绕,请问future consumption outcomes到底是什么,是marginal utility of future吗?如果是的话,那根据何老师讲的,回报率越高导致未来的utility下降,这个应该是负相关的关系。如果不是的话,那future consumption outcomes到底是什么??

4 个答案
已采纳答案

星星_品职助教 · 2021年04月25日

@Louis

继续回复评论。

股票收益率和定价不是组合这门课的内容,简单介绍一下。

类比你说的债券发行的思路。股票在IPO定价的时候会考虑投资者要求的回报率,如果投资者要求的回报率很高,那么发行价就定低一点,否则没人买,会导致发行失败。

所以考虑到了股票无法对冲经济下滑的风险,这只股票发行的时候,这个因素就会考虑在发行价里,导致发行价低,卖的便宜,相当于购买者的收益率高,也就是给了投资者风险补偿。

二级市场的道理是一样的,除非这只股票价格达到了满足投资者收益率的要求,不然这个投资者是不会买这只股票的。

以上内容简单看一看就行,已经不是这个章节的考点了。

Louis · 2021年04月25日

谢谢星星老师,很有帮助!

星星_品职助教 · 2021年04月26日

@Louis

好的,加油~

星星_品职助教 · 2021年04月23日

@Louis 回复追问:

这一章中,任何的金融产品的对应收益率都是Rf+对应的risk premium。

在经济差的情况下,消费水平会自然下跌,如果此时将股票和债券做一个对比:

①债券在经济差的时候return会高,所以可以卖债券用收益进行消费,维持消费水平不变,这是一个hedge的作用,即降低风险,所以债券对应的风险和RP都是相对较低的;

②股票在经济差的时候也会跌,这时候无法通过卖股票获得收益维持消费水平,所以股票不能对冲风险(bad consumption hedge),这个时候要求的RP就需要很高。

------

如果对于解释还有不确定的地方,还可以进一步追问或评论来继续提问

Louis · 2021年04月25日

谢谢老师,其实我的问题就是说,投资者对股票的【高要求回报率】是怎么体现的?债券可以通过折价发行来提高YTM,但股票的价格是由市场交易决定的,经济不好的时候股票跌下来,投资者想要的补偿如何实现呢?

SiriChing10 · 2023年05月28日

星星回答的真棒

星星_品职助教 · 2021年04月21日

同学你好,

“future consumption outcomes”可以理解为未来的消费水平,经济好的时候,会带来消费水平自然上升,经济差的时候,会导致消费水平下滑。

“consumption hedge”指的是金融产品能否对冲这种消费波动的风险。

只有短期国债是“good consumption hedge”。

其余的都是bad comsuption hedge,这里主要针对的股票和房地产。低评级公司债也属于这一类。

从这道题出发,股票(equity)对于消费的波动没有对冲作用。经济差的时候,股票也同时不值钱了,无法通过卖股票来获得收益增加消费,所以就无法降低消费下滑的风险,所以才会对股票要求一个高风险补偿。

如果这里换成(短期)国债,则就不需要很高的risk premium。

  • 4

    回答
  • 4

    关注
  • 1415

    浏览
相关问题

NO.PZ2015121810000042问题如下Risk-averse investors manng a large equity risk premium are most likely expecting their future consumption outcomes anequity returns to be:A.uncorrelateB.positively correlateC.negatively correlateB is correct.If investors manhigh equity risk premiums, they are likely expecting their future consumption anequity returns to positively correlate The positive correlation incates thequities will exhibit poor heing properties, equity returns will high (e.g., poff) ring \"gootimes\" anwill low (e.g., not poff) ring \"btimes\". In other wor, the covarianbetween risk-averse investors’ inter-temporrates of substitution anthe expectefuture prices of equities is highly negative, resulting in a positive anlarge equity risk premium. This is the case because, in gootimes, when equity returns are high, the marginvalue of consumption is low. Similarly, in btimes, when equity returns are low, the marginvalue of consumption is high. Holng all else constant, the larger the magnitu of the negative covarianterm, the larger the risk premium. 考点 equity risk premium consumption outcomes解析问的是股票收益与实体经济的相关性,两者是正相关的,因为实体经济变好,股票收益率增加。正因为两者正相关,所以在经济下滑时,股票不是很好的对冲经济下滑的工具,所以要使风险厌恶的投资者投资股票,就必须给他们更高的风险补偿。老师好,我看题目问的是risk premium和未来消费(经济趋势)的相关性,老师在其他同学的提问里也回复了如下内容在经济差的情况下,消费水平会自然下跌,股票在经济差的时候也会跌,这时候无法通过卖股票获得收益维持消费水平,所以股票不能对冲风险(bconsumption hee),这个时候要求的RP就需要很高。按照上面回复理解,经济差的情况下,要求的RP很高,这就是negative correlate,为什么答案是positive correlate?谢谢!

2024-11-03 20:54 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2015121810000042 问题如下 Risk-averse investors manng a large equity risk premium are most likely expecting their future consumption outcomes anequity returns to be: A.uncorrelate B.positively correlate C.negatively correlate B is correct.If investors manhigh equity risk premiums, they are likely expecting their future consumption anequity returns to positively correlate The positive correlation incates thequities will exhibit poor heing properties, equity returns will high (e.g., poff) ring \"gootimes\" anwill low (e.g., not poff) ring \"btimes\". In other wor, the covarianbetween risk-averse investors’ inter-temporrates of substitution anthe expectefuture prices of equities is highly negative, resulting in a positive anlarge equity risk premium. This is the case because, in gootimes, when equity returns are high, the marginvalue of consumption is low. Similarly, in btimes, when equity returns are low, the marginvalue of consumption is high. Holng all else constant, the larger the magnitu of the negative covarianterm, the larger the risk premium. 考点 equity risk premium consumption outcomes解析问的是股票收益与实体经济的相关性,两者是正相关的,因为实体经济变好,股票收益率增加。正因为两者正相关,所以在经济下滑时,股票不是很好的对冲经济下滑的工具,所以要使风险厌恶的投资者投资股票,就必须给他们更高的风险补偿。 future consumption outcome = marginvalue of consumption?

2024-07-02 10:05 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2015121810000042 问题如下 Risk-averse investors manng a large equity risk premium are most likely expecting their future consumption outcomes anequity returns to be: A.uncorrelate B.positively correlate C.negatively correlate B is correct.If investors manhigh equity risk premiums, they are likely expecting their future consumption anequity returns to positively correlate The positive correlation incates thequities will exhibit poor heing properties, equity returns will high (e.g., poff) ring \"gootimes\" anwill low (e.g., not poff) ring \"btimes\". In other wor, the covarianbetween risk-averse investors’ inter-temporrates of substitution anthe expectefuture prices of equities is highly negative, resulting in a positive anlarge equity risk premium. This is the case because, in gootimes, when equity returns are high, the marginvalue of consumption is low. Similarly, in btimes, when equity returns are low, the marginvalue of consumption is high. Holng all else constant, the larger the magnitu of the negative covarianterm, the larger the risk premium. 考点 equity risk premium consumption outcomes解析问的是股票收益与实体经济的相关性,两者是正相关的,因为实体经济变好,股票收益率增加。正因为两者正相关,所以在经济下滑时,股票不是很好的对冲经济下滑的工具,所以要使风险厌恶的投资者投资股票,就必须给他们更高的风险补偿。 题干没读明白,另外future consumption outcomes 这个是啥意思,是未来消费的意思吗?

2023-09-17 22:31 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2015121810000042问题如下Risk-averse investors manng a large equity risk premium are most likely expecting their future consumption outcomes anequity returns to be:A.uncorrelateB.positively correlateC.negatively correlateB is correct.If investors manhigh equity risk premiums, they are likely expecting their future consumption anequity returns to positively correlate The positive correlation incates thequities will exhibit poor heing properties, equity returns will high (e.g., poff) ring \"gootimes\" anwill low (e.g., not poff) ring \"btimes\". In other wor, the covarianbetween risk-averse investors’ inter-temporrates of substitution anthe expectefuture prices of equities is highly negative, resulting in a positive anlarge equity risk premium. This is the case because, in gootimes, when equity returns are high, the marginvalue of consumption is low. Similarly, in btimes, when equity returns are low, the marginvalue of consumption is high. Holng all else constant, the larger the magnitu of the negative covarianterm, the larger the risk premium. 考点 equity risk premium consumption outcomes解析问的是股票收益与实体经济的相关性,两者是正相关的,因为实体经济变好,股票收益率增加。正因为两者正相关,所以在经济下滑时,股票不是很好的对冲经济下滑的工具,所以要使风险厌恶的投资者投资股票,就必须给他们更高的风险补偿。两个类似的题目都一再强调投资者风险厌恶,且要求大量的风险溢价,这个与“股票表现和消费同向变动”有逻辑联系吗?还是说只是干扰信息?题目能做对,就是觉怀疑自己是不是没理解透。

2023-03-03 17:40 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2015121810000042 我想的是未来经济差,风险就高,所以要求的对风险的补偿就高,经济和风险补偿之间就是反比关系。但是这里问的是equity return,equity return是指Pt+1-Pt,这个是跟risk premium是反比是么? 所以答案是反向关系。我这么理解对吗?

2021-06-03 17:19 1 · 回答