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HG · 2021年04月09日

老师答案是不是有点问题,这个货币的贬值咋没考虑啊,这个计算不对吧?

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201902210100000103

问题如下:

Among the carry trades available in the US, Euro, and UK markets, the highest expected return for the USD-denominated portfolio over the next 6 months is closest to:

选项:

A.

0.275%.

B.

0.85%.

C.

0.90%.

解释:

B is correct.

The highest potential return, 0.85%, reflects borrowing USD for 6 months and buying the UK 5-year bond. The carry component of the expected return is actually a loss of 0.15% [= (1.10% – 1.40%)/2], but this is more than offset by the 1% expected appreciation of GBP versus USD. A much higher carry component +0.90% = (1.95% – 0.15%)/2 could be obtained by borrowing for 6 months in EUR to buy the US 5-year note, but that advantage would be more than offset by the expected 1% loss from depreciation of the USD (long) against the Euro (short).

A is incorrect because a higher expected return of 0.85% can be obtained. This answer, +0.275% [= (1.95% – 1.40%)/2], is the highest carry available over the next 6 months within the US market itself (an intra-market carry trade).

C is incorrect. This answer (+0.90%) is the highest potential carry component of return but ignores the impact of currency exposure (being long the depreciating USD and short the appreciating Euro).

老师答案是不是有点问题,这个货币的贬值咋没考虑啊,这个计算不对吧?

2 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2021年04月11日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


老师答案是不是有点问题,这个货币的贬值咋没考虑啊,这个计算不对吧?


对的。如上面Weizixiao童鞋的回复,这道题B选项是考虑到汇率升贬值的。


Carry trade算净收益时,一定要考虑汇率升贬值,因为将高利率货币的投资收益,换回低利率国家的货币之后,我们需要偿还掉低利率国家的本金和利息,走完这一步(还完借入资金的本息)才算是真正的结束Carry trade策略。这个过程就一定会涉及到换汇与汇率的升贬值,所以在算Carry trade净收益时,就需要同时考虑:息差 + 汇率升贬值。


这道题这个C选项0.9%的收益肯定是错误的,因为他就是没有考虑到汇率的升贬值,这个0.9%只是5年期美元与6个月EUR的息差(1.95%-0.15)/2;这只是息差部分,所以答案解释C选项时,也说了0.9%这个选项忽略了汇率的升贬值(ignores the impact of currency exposure)。正确的算法,还需要再加上将美元换回EUR的汇率升贬值,美元贬值1%,因此Carry trade的净收益为:0.90% + (-1%) = -0.10%.


选项A,其实是在美国的市场内部,做的Intra-market carry trade,Intra-market carry trade又不涉及汇率问题,因此A选项的答案在解释时,也没有涉及汇率的升贬值。他是借6-month美元、投5-year美元,息差为:(1.95%-1.40%)/2 = 0.275%;


选项B,是在UK与USD做Carry trade,息差为 - 0.15% [= (1.10% – 1.40%)/2];汇率升贬值是+1%,所以Carry trade净收益是:1-0.15%=0.85%。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

weizixiao · 2021年04月09日

是考慮了貨幣匯率變化的,重點是看清楚頭寸方向:借六個月美元,投五年期英鎊,利差是-0.15%,組合持有的資產是英鎊。投資期結束,將英鎊換回美元,考慮到六個月美元兌英鎊貶值了1%,因此總收益是1%-0.15%=0.85%。