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一只可爱的猪 · 2021年04月06日

NO.PZ201512300100000906

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NO.PZ201512300100000906

问题如下:

6. Dobson is wondering what the consequences would be if the duration of the first stage was assumed to be 11 years instead of 8, with all the other assumptions/estimates remaining the same. Considering this change, which of the following is true?

选项:

A.

In the second approach, the proportion of the total value of the stock represented by the second stage would not change.

B.

The total value estimated using the third approach would increase.

C.

Using this new assumption and the first approach will lead Dobson to conclude that the stock is overvalued.

解释:

B is correct.

If the extraordinary growth rate of 14 percent is expected to continue for a longer duration, the stocks value would increase. Choice A is false because given that the first stage is longer (11 years instead of 8), the terminal value is being calculated at a later point in time. So, its present value would be smaller. Moreover, the first stage has more years and contributes more to the total value. Overall, the proportion contributed by the second stage would be smaller. Choice C is false because the intrinsic value of the stock would be higher and the appropriate conclusion would be that the stock would be undervalued to a greater extent based on the first approach.

问一下A,在方法二中,乘数法,P/E=(1-b)(1+g)/(r-g)。这个等式可以反求出(1+g)/(r-g)。在通过V11=D11(1+g)/(r-g),可以算出V11,再往前折现,但是,怎么判断是变大还是变小呢?

1 个答案

Debrah_品职答疑助手 · 2021年04月07日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


选择A是错误的,因为考虑到第一阶段更长(11年而不是8年),终值是在稍后的时间点计算的。所以,它的现值会更小。而且,第一阶段的年数更多,对总价值的贡献更大。总的来说,第二阶段所占的比例较小。

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