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reachqi · 2021年03月12日

Output Gap = Actual GDP - Potential GDP ??

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NO.PZ202001210200000104

问题如下:

Based on Exhibit 1 and Wakuluk’s assumptions about short-term rates and expected inflation, short-term rates in Country X are most likely to be:

选项:

A.

low and bottoming.

B.

above average and rising.

C.

approaching a peak.

解释:

A is correct. Country X is predicted to be in the initial recovery phase of the business cycle, which suggests short-term (money market) rates are low or bottoming. Inflation is procyclical. It accelerates in the later stages of the business cycle when the output gap has closed, and it decelerates when a large output gap puts downward pressure on wages and prices, which often happens during a recession or the early years afterward. As long as short-term interest rates adjust with expected inflation, cash is essentially a zero-duration, inflationprotected asset that earns a floating real rate, which is typically procyclical. Wakuluk assumes short-term interest rates adjust with expected inflation and are procyclical. Tus, short-term rates are most likely to be low and bottoming if Country X is in the initial recovery phase of the business cycle.

X国预计将处于商业周期的初步复苏阶段,这意味着短期(货币市场)利率处于低位或见底。通货膨胀是顺周期。在商业周期的后期,当产出缺口缩小时,经济增长会加速;当巨大的产出缺口对工资和价格构成下行压力时,经济增长会减速,而这种情况通常发生在经济衰退或衰退后的最初几年。

只要短期利率随着预期的通货膨胀进行调整,现金基本上就是一种零存续期、受通货膨胀保护的资产,因为它的实际利率是浮动的,还是顺周期的。Wakuluk假设短期利率会随着预期的通货膨胀而调整,并且是顺周期的。如果X国正处于商业周期的初步复苏阶段,那么短期利率最有可能处于低位和底部。所以A选项正确。

  1. Output GAP 是?? Output Gap = Actual GDP - Potential GDP
  2. 答案中提到“a large output gap puts downward pressure on wages and prices” ,这是因为经济过热(生产过多导致过剩)造成的吗?如果不是,是什么原因导致的?

谢谢

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源_品职助教 · 2021年03月12日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


Output Gap = potential-actual gdp

a large output gap puts downward pressure on wages and prices是说,在经济衰退时候,工资和价格会有下行的趋势。

因为经济不好的时候,就业是困难的,工人愿意降薪。老板为了减少成本度过难关,也会降薪。老百姓手上钱少了,对于商品的需求也就少了。那么物价水平也会相应下降。

不客气~

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506623496 · 2023年12月21日

老师讲的,产出缺口=实际产出➖潜在产出?

源_品职助教 · 2023年12月21日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


现在原版书的定义是:产出缺口=实际产出➖潜在产出

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孙际尧 · 2021年03月12日

output gap=potential-actual gdp

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NO.PZ202001210200000104 问题如下 Baseon Exhibit 1 anWakuluk’s assumptions about short-term rates anexpecteinflation, short-term rates in Country X are most likely to be: A.low anbottoming. B.above average anrising. approaching a peak. A is correct. Country X is precteto in the initirecovery phase of the business cycle, whisuggests short-term (money market) rates are low or bottoming. Inflation is procyclical. It accelerates in the later stages of the business cycle when the output ghclose anit celerates when a large output gputs wnwarpressure on wages anprices, whioften happens ring a recession or the early years afterwar long short-term interest rates aust with expecteinflation, cash is essentially a zero-ration, inflationprotecteasset thearns a floating rerate, whiis typically procyclical. Wakuluk assumes short-term interest rates aust with expecteinflation anare procyclical. Tus, short-term rates are most likely to low anbottoming if Country X is in the initirecovery phase of the business cycle. X国预计将处于商业周期的初步复苏阶段,这意味着短期(货币市场)利率处于低位或见底。通货膨胀是顺周期。在商业周期的后期,当产出缺口缩小时,经济增长会加速;当巨大的产出缺口对工资和价格构成下行压力时,经济增长会减速,而这种情况通常发生在经济衰退或衰退后的最初几年。只要短期利率随着预期的通货膨胀进行调整,现金基本上就是一种零存续期、受通货膨胀保护的资产,因为它的实际利率是浮动的,还是顺周期的。Wakuluk假设短期利率会随着预期的通货膨胀而调整,并且是顺周期的。如果X国正处于商业周期的初步复苏阶段,那么短期利率最有可能处于低位和底部。所以A正确。 No.PZ202001210200000104

2024-03-17 11:56 2 · 回答

NO.PZ202001210200000104 问题如下 Baseon Exhibit 1 anWakuluk’s assumptions about short-term rates anexpecteinflation, short-term rates in Country X are most likely to be: A.low anbottoming. B.above average anrising. approaching a peak. A is correct. Country X is precteto in the initirecovery phase of the business cycle, whisuggests short-term (money market) rates are low or bottoming. Inflation is procyclical. It accelerates in the later stages of the business cycle when the output ghclose anit celerates when a large output gputs wnwarpressure on wages anprices, whioften happens ring a recession or the early years afterwar long short-term interest rates aust with expecteinflation, cash is essentially a zero-ration, inflationprotecteasset thearns a floating rerate, whiis typically procyclical. Wakuluk assumes short-term interest rates aust with expecteinflation anare procyclical. Tus, short-term rates are most likely to low anbottoming if Country X is in the initirecovery phase of the business cycle. X国预计将处于商业周期的初步复苏阶段,这意味着短期(货币市场)利率处于低位或见底。通货膨胀是顺周期。在商业周期的后期,当产出缺口缩小时,经济增长会加速;当巨大的产出缺口对工资和价格构成下行压力时,经济增长会减速,而这种情况通常发生在经济衰退或衰退后的最初几年。只要短期利率随着预期的通货膨胀进行调整,现金基本上就是一种零存续期、受通货膨胀保护的资产,因为它的实际利率是浮动的,还是顺周期的。Wakuluk假设短期利率会随着预期的通货膨胀而调整,并且是顺周期的。如果X国正处于商业周期的初步复苏阶段,那么短期利率最有可能处于低位和底部。所以A正确。 Inflation is procyclical.是什么意思?

2022-07-12 09:44 1 · 回答