NO.PZ201710100100000303
问题如下：
3. Based on the data in Exhibit 1, current real short-term interest rates would most likely be highest in:
选项：
A. Country #1.
B. Country #2.
C. Country #3
解释：
B is correct.
Real short-term interest rates are positively related to both real GDP growth and the volatility of real GDP growth. Country #1 and Country #2 have the highest real GDP growth, as estimated by the difference between nominal GDP growth and average inflation (6.5% – 4.0% = 2.5% and 5.0% – 2.5% = 2.5%, respectively), while Country #3 has the lowest real GDP growth (3.5% – 2.0% = 1.5%). Looking at the volatility of real GDP growth, Country #2 has high real GDP growth volatility, whereas Country #1 and Country #3 have low real GDP growth volatility. Therefore, Country #2 would most likely have the highest real short-term interest rates.
考点： real short-term interest rates
解析：real short-term interest rates受两个因素影响，一是real GDP growth，二是volatility of real GDP growth。
real GDP growth越高，短期实际利率越高；volatility of real GDP growth越高，短期实际利率也是越高。
real GDP growth=nominal GDP growth - inflation rate
因此根据表格数据，三个国家的real GDP growth分别为：2.5%，2.5%，1.5%。Country 3可以排除，因为它的GDP增长率最低。
再根据volatility of real GDP growth，只有country 2的波动率是高的。所以选B。
从题目中可以算出country #1 和2 的real interest rate 都是2.5%。 但是我看到country 2 的yield curve 是upward slope， 然而country1 的yield curve是flat。这部是说明相比country 1来讲， country2 的Yst 更低吗？ 所以答案为什么不是country 2
