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天天_mama · 2021年01月31日

问一道题:NO.PZ201812020100000601 第1小题 [ CFA III ]

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

问题如下:

The portfolio strategy implemented by McLaughlin last year is mostly likely to be described as:

选项:

A.

a carry trade.

B.

a barbell structure.

C.

riding the yield curve.

解释:

C is correct.

Last year, McLaughlin expected the yield curve to be stable over the year. Riding the yield curve is a strategy based on the premise that, as a bond ages, it will decline in yield if the yield curve is upward sloping. This is known as "roll down"; that is, the bond rolls down the (static) curve. Riding the yield curve differs from buy and hold in that the manager is expecting to add to returns by selling the security at a lower yield at the horizon. This strategy may be particularly effective if the portfolio manager targets portions of the yield curve that are relatively steep and where price appreciation resulting from the bond’s migration to maturity can be significant. McLaughlin elected to position her portfolio solely in 20-year Treasury bonds, which reflect the steepest part of the yield curve, with the expectation of selling the bonds in one year.

老师,请问carry trade 中的intra-market为什么有interest rate risk?我知道是长期利率减去短期利率,但假设不是stable yield curve 吗?收益率不变呀,为什么会有interest rate risk? 

1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2021年02月01日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


这里只是我们预期利率Stable,所以采取了Stable情形下Carry trade的策略;但是实际利率是否真的是Stable并不一定,有可能实际利率的变动和我们预期的不一致。如果和预期不一致,就会有Interest rate risk,会导致Carry trade失败。

历史上就存在着多次Carry trade失败的案例,就是因为策略的实施者预期利率、汇率Stable,存在着息差的空间。但事实上,现实中的利率或者汇率发生了未预期到的大幅的波动,完全抹去了息差。由于Carry trade是一种借钱投资的杠杆交易,这种失败就有可能产生大幅亏损。


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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!


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