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佩奇_ · 2021年01月18日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018122701000030 [ FRM II ]

问题如下:

Let X be a random variable representing the daily loss of your portfolio. The "peaks over threshold" (POT) approach considers a threshold value, u, of X and the distribution of excess losses over this threshold. Which of the following statements about this application of extreme value theory is correct?

选项:

A.

To apply the POT approach, the distribution of X must be elliptical and known.

B.

If X is normally distributed, the distribution of excess losses requires the estimation of only one parameter, β, which is a positive scale parameter.

C.

To apply the POT approach, one must choose a threshold, u, which is high enough that the number of observations in excess of u is zero.

D.

As the threshold, u, increases, the distribution of excess losses over u converges to a generalized Pareto distribution.

解释:

D is correct.

考点: Extreme Value

解析: The distribution of excess losses over u converges to a generalized Pareto distribution as the threshold value u increases.

The distribution of X itself can be any of the commonly used distribution: normal, lognormal, t, etc., and will usually be known. The distribution of excess losses requires the estimation of two parameters, a positive scale parameter β and a shape or tail index parameter ξ. One must choose a threshold u that is high enough so that the theory applies but also low enough so that there are observations in excess of u.

n增大,POT不是更趋近于广义极值理论吗?POT本身就是广义帕累托,怎么能说趋近呢?

2 个答案
已采纳答案

品职答疑小助手雍 · 2021年01月19日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


同学你是不是记错了,广义帕累托分布,是要在POT的threshold达到一定大之后,才能由超出threshold的值组成的。这个在讲义里和原版书里都提到了。讲义如下图。


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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!


品职答疑小助手雍 · 2021年01月19日

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