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三言午寺 · 2021年01月16日

问一道题:NO.PZ2017092702000132

问题如下:

An analyst tests the profitability of a trading strategy with the null hypothesis being that the average abnormal return before trading costs equals zero. The calculated t-statistic is 2.802, with critical values of ± 2.756 at significance level α = 0.01. After considering trading costs, the strategy’s return is near zero. The results are most likely:

选项:

A.

statistically but not economically significant.

B.

economically but not statistically significant.

C.

neither statistically nor economically significant.

解释:

A is correct.

The hypothesis is a two-tailed formulation. The t-statistic of 2.802 falls outside the critical rejection points of less than –2.756 and greater than 2.756, therefore the null hypothesis is rejected; the result is statistically significant. However, despite the statistical results, trying to profit on the strategy is not likely to be economically meaningful because the return is near zero after transaction costs

想确认一下:

statistically significant指的是能否判断拒绝还是不拒绝原假设

economically significant指的是能否判断经济上要不要这么做?如果能判断要做或是不要做,就是economically significant?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

星星_品职助教 · 2021年01月16日

同学你好,

对的。简单总结一下:

statistically significant是一个统计学上的概念,目的是判断拒绝还是不拒绝原假设。如果提到significant/Significance test,就默认原假设为假设要检验的东西等于0。“statistically significant”写全了就是statistically significant different from 0有时就直接简称“significant”,意思就是拒绝原假设。

对应在这道题里,通过计算可以拒绝strategy's return=0的原假设,所以是statistically significant。这就说明strategy's return不为0,这个策略从统计学意义上来讲是值得去实施的。

----------------------

economically significant直译成“经济意义上显著有效果”就可以,目的是判断经济上要不要这么做。如果结论是“economically significant”,就是从经济意义上也值得这么做。

这道题“After considering trading costs, the strategy’s return is near zero”。说明从经济意义上是不值得去做这个策略的,即not economically significant。

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