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Sia · 2017年12月22日

问一道题:NO.PZ2015121810000034 [ CFA II ]

老师请问为什么yield curve 会出现答案解释里的这三种情况呢???


多谢!



问题如下图:

    

选项:

A.

B.

C.

解释:



1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2017年12月25日


我们观察到债券市场上的收益率曲线收益率由两部分组成,第一部分是预测的利率值,第二部分是债券的风险溢价。

如果收益率曲线表现为上升,那么有三种可能:

1.预期利率和风险溢价同时上升

2.预期利率上升,风险溢价下降,但是预期利率上升的幅度超过风险溢价上升的幅度。

3,预期利率下降,风险溢价上升,但是预期利率下降的幅度小于风险溢价上升的幅度。

预期利率和风险溢价之间没有一定的同步或者非同部变化关系

所以仅仅观察预债券市场的收益率曲线是不能判断未来预测利率变化的方向。




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