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Sherry · 2020年11月19日

问一道题：NO.PZ2018103102000042

  1. CFA II
  2. Equity

问题如下：

Jacques is the portfolio manager of AB pension and she recently consider adding PZ Inc. (New York Stock Exchange: PZ) to its portfolio. After carefully considering the characteristics of the company and its competitors, she believes the company will have extraordinary growth for the next 4 years and normal growth thereafter. So, she has concluded that a two-stage DDM is the most appropriate for valuing the stock. PZ’s total dividends paid on 2017  was $0.22. She believes that the growth rate will be 12 percent the next 4 years and 6 percent afterwards. The estimated that the required return is 9 percent. What is the terminal value of the stock based on this approach?

选项：

A.

$12.23.

B.

$20.12.

C.

$31.09.

解释：

A is correct.

考点：DDM,The Gordon Growth Model Equation The & Implied Dividend Growth Rate

解析：A是正确的。如表所示，终值V4= $12.23。

虽然看了该题其他解答，但还是不能理解此处的终值选定为第四年的原因。传统理解，终值就是一段期间最末尾的时间点估值。既然该模型为两阶段模型，股票价格在未来无穷多的时间内都会持续增长，所以按道理只能计算观察坐标在P4时间点（即为站在p4时间点的现值）。这个终值的定义从何而来，在课件里面似乎并没有提及，也GGM模型的含义似乎相抵触。

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1 个答案

Debrah_品职答疑助手 · 2020年11月20日

同学你好，既然是两阶段，那就一个阶段一个阶段的求。

先求第二阶段折现到第一阶段末的Value，一般用GGM求即可。

建议你仔细听一下基础班122页的例题。

 

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