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李冬树 · 2020年11月10日

问一道题:NO.PZ2015120604000175

问题如下:

Here is some information about the change of a stock price. There is 38% probability that the market will rise, 46% probability that the market will unchange, and 16% probability that the market will decline. What is the probability that the stock price equals to $45?

选项:

A.

38.25%.

B.

56.54%.

C.

48.79%.

解释:

B is correct.

Using the total probability rule, the probability that the stock price equals to $45 is 0.38*0.65+0.46*0.56+0.16*0.38=56.54%

老师可以列一下过程吗?只知道先算三种情况的prob: 25*0.05+45*0.65+60*0.3 ; 25*0.35+45*0.56+60*0.09 ;25*0.62+45*0.38+60*0 ;然后要怎么做?

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2020年11月10日

同学你好,

这道题要求“ the probability that the stock price equals to $45”,所以根据表格,可以看到股价等于45时有三种情况。把这三种情况列出来,算出各自概率然后相加就可以了。

0.38*0.65+0.46*0.56+0.16*0.38=56.54%

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