问题如下：
Default spread is equal to the yield on Baa bonds minus the yield on Aaa bonds. Term spread is equal to the yield on a 10-year constant-maturity US Treasury index minus the yield on a 1-year constant-maturity US Treasury index. Pres party dummy is equal to 1 if the US President is a member of the Democratic Party and 0 if a member of the Republican Party.
The regression is estimated with 431 observations.
Exhibit 1.Multiple Regression Output
With respect to the default spread, the estimated model indicates that when business conditions are:
选项：
A.strong, expected excess returns will be higher.
B.weak, expected excess returns will be lower.
C.weak, expected excess returns will be higher.
解释：
C is correct.
The default spread is typically larger when business conditions are poor, i.e., a greater probability of default by the borrower. The positive sign for default spread (see Exhibit 1) indicates that expected returns are positively related to default spreads, meaning that excess returns are greater when business conditions are poor.
请问，经济条件不好的时候default spread变大大是不是和下面的表述矛盾了：Default spread is equal to the yield on Baa bonds minus the yield on Aaa bonds.
经济不好的时候Aaa bonds的yield不是更大么？那yield on Baa bonds-yield on Aaa bonds不是变小了么？
