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lin · 2020年10月25日

问一道题:NO.PZ2016082406000082

问题如下:

Mr. Rosenqvist, asset manager, holds a portfolio of SEK 200 million, which consists of BBB-rated bonds. Assume that the one-year probability of default is 4%, the recovery rate is 60%, and defaults are uncorrelated over years. What is the two-year cumulative expected credit loss on Mr. Rosenqvist’s portfolio?

选项:

A.

SEK 6.40 million

B.

SEK 6.27 million

C.

SEK 9.60 million

D.

SEK 9.48 million

解释:

ANSWER: B

The survival rate over two years is  S2=(14%)2=92.16%S_2={(1-4\%)}^2=92.16\% , which implies a cumulative two-year default rate of 7.84%. Put differently, the first-year PD is 4%, then (14%)4%=3.84%{(1-4\%)}4\%=3.84\%. Multiplying by 200 and 40% gives 6.27.

可以先算出第一年的EL=4% * (1-60%)* 200=3.2 M

第二年的EL=96%*4%*200*(1-60%)=3.072M

再把二年的相加可以么

1 个答案

小刘_品职助教 · 2020年10月26日

同学你好,

可以的。不过感觉题目给出的算法计算起来会更快,不然的话如果遇到3年,感觉很容易会带错数据~