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chris2.0🔱 · 2020年10月21日

问一道题:NO.PZ201709270100000502 第2小题 [ CFA II ]

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

问题如下:

2. Based on the regression output in Exhibit 1, the first-differenced series used to run Regression 2 is consistent with:

选项:

A.

a random walk.

B.

covariance stationarity.

C.

a random walk with drift.

解释:

B is correct. The critical t-statistic at a 5% confidence level is 1.98. As a result, neither the intercept nor the coefficient on the first lag of the first-differenced exchange rate in Regression 2 differs significantly from zero. Also, the residual autocorrelations do not differ significantly from zero. As a result, Regression 2 can be reduced to yt = εt with a mean-reverting level of b0/(1 b1) = 0/1 = 0.

Therefore, the variance of yt in each period is Var(εt) = σ2. The fact that the residuals are not autocorrelated is consistent with the covariance of the times series, with itself being constant and finite at different lags. Because the variance and the mean of yt are constant and finite in each period, we can also conclude that yt is covariance stationary.

这道题我可不可以看表中的stand erro都是一致的,从而判断选b
2 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2021年06月01日

@小呀小田螺

同学你好,根据题干条件将方程转化为 yt = εt后,即可以发现yt是满足均值,方差,协方差都相等这三个条件

(根据方程的前提假设即可以得到均值为0,方差不变即同方差,协方差为0。)

星星_品职助教 · 2020年10月21日

同学你好,

这道题的四个standard error都是根据公式1/根号n计算出来的(1/√118=0.0921),所以一定是都相等的,不能仅仅因此来做判断。

cov stationary需要通过均值,方差,协方差都相等这三个条件来逐条验证和判断。

小呀小田螺 · 2021年06月01日

那此题通过哪里可以判断值,方差,协方差都相等这三个条件呢?挺晕的

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