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还是星宇好 · 2020年10月13日

问一道题:NO.PZ2016072602000031

问题如下:

Counterparty A is an American company with manufacturing operations in Indonesia and its main customers in the United States, while counterparty B is an American company that manufactures its goods domestically and exports solely to Indonesia. Which one of the following transactions with either counterparty will be a wrong-way exposure for a bank?

选项:

A.

A five-year plain-vanilla IDR/USD cross-currency swap between the bank and counterparty A where the bank is USD interest rate receiver

B.

A five-year plain-vanilla IDR/USD currency option sold by the bank to counterparty A for it to buy IDR at a certain rate

C.

A five-year plain-vanilla IDR/USD cross-currency swap between the bank and counterparty B where the bank is USD interest rate receiver

D.

A five-year plain-vanilla IDR/USD currency option bought by the bank from counterparty B for the bank to buy IDR at a certain rate

解释:

C is correct. This is an example of a wrong-way exposure, where a gain on the instrument for the bank is associated with a higher probability of default (PD) for its counterparty. If the IDR depreciates, counterparty A will make a profit because its costs will go down in dollars; conversely for counterparty B, because its dollar revenues will decrease. Under c., the company pays USD and receives IDR. This transaction will create a loss if the IDR depreciates. In this situation, counterparty B will lose money as well on its exports. Hence, this is a wrong-way trade.

B,银行是short IDR方不存在对手盘风险,

D,银行是long IDR方,IDR升值,银行赚钱,IDR升值,USD 贬值,USD贬值B出口增加,B的PD下降,银行越赚钱,B的违约概率越不大,是不是一个right way risk?


在swap中 receiver 是long方,收美元相当于赌USD升值,C选项USD 升值,BANK 赚钱,但是B是美国出口过,升值B的出口下降,PD提高,所以是一个wrong way risk?

1 个答案

品职答疑小助手雍 · 2020年10月13日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


B选项:A公司怕IDR波动(升值会导致在印尼生产的成本上升)就买了call option来防止其汇率上升的风险,对于银行来说A公司没有WWR。

D选项:B公司怕IDR贬值(贬值会导致卖给印尼的货卖便宜换回的美元少),而银行向B公司买的call option是在IDR升值时才会对银行产生收益的,不是在B公司害怕的情形下再让B公司亏钱的,所以也不是WWR。


-------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!


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