开发者:上海品职教育科技有限公司 隐私政策详情

应用版本:4.2.11(IOS)｜3.2.5(安卓)APP下载

返回

LHY · 2020年10月11日

问一道题：NO.PZ2016082405000067

  1. FRM II
  2. Credit Risk Measurement And Management

问题如下：

Based on the following information, what are the the risk-neutral and real-world default probabilities?

•     Market price of bond is 92.

•     Liquidity premium is 1%.

•     Credit risk premium is 2%.

•     Risk-free rate is 2.5%.

•     Expected inflation is 1.5%.

•     Recovery rate is 0%.

选项：

Risk-neutral probability
Real-world probability
A.
5% 
8%
B.
8% 
5%
C.
6% 
8%
D.
5% 
6%

解释：

B The risk-neutral default probability is approximately 8% because the market price is 92% of par.

risk-neutral probability = real-world probability + credit risk premium + liquidity premium

8% = real-world probability + 2% + 1%

real-world probability = 8% - 3% = 5%

risk-neutral 是啥意思？

为啥它还等于 = real default + 流动性+风险补偿？

这是在哪里讲的啊？

添加评论
2 个答案

袁园_品职助教 · 2020年10月15日

同学你好！

是的，就是假设情况和现实情况差了两个premium

袁园_品职助教 · 2020年10月12日

同学你好！

先说明一下，这道题是notes上的，很多地方不严谨，理解大意即可，不用太深究了。

1. Risk-neutral 就是风险中性，完整的计算公式可以参考讲义

这道题目中简化了计算，没有考虑 rf（实际考试的时候不建议忽略，除非选不到正确答案），认为 recovery rate = 0，所以

92 = 100 * (1-PD)，得到 PD = 8%

2. risk-neutral probability = real-world probability + credit risk premium + liquidity premium

这是notes是的一张图

在真实世界里，理性的投资者是具有损失厌恶的，面对损失，会想要超过数学期望的补偿。而这个补偿premium，是credit risk 和 liquidity risk 带来的，所以得减去。

  • 2

    回答

  • 0

    关注

  • 506

    浏览
相关问题

NO.PZ2016082405000067 B The risk-neutrfault probability is approximately 8% because the market priis 92% of par. risk-neutrprobability = real-worlprobability + cret risk premium + liquity premium 8% = real-worlprobability + 2% + 1% real-worlprobability = 8% - 3% = 5% 可以具体下The risk-neutrfault probability is approximately 8% because the market priis 92% of par.么？ 如果按照讲义上的风险中性p计算方法如下，计算出来是5.7%，请问这个方式有什么问题么？ p=100(1-p/1+risk_free_rate 92=100*(1-p/1+0.025

2021-05-11 23:13 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2016082405000067 8%  5% 6%  8% 5%  6% B The risk-neutrfault probability is approximately 8% because the market priis 92% of par. risk-neutrprobability = real-worlprobability + cret risk premium + liquity premium 8% = real-worlprobability + 2% + 1% real-worlprobability = 8% - 3% = 5% 真实pπ这个规律可以直接使用吗

2021-03-27 12:02 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2016082405000067 B The risk-neutrfault probability is approximately 8% because the market priis 92% of par. risk-neutrprobability = real-worlprobability + cret risk premium + liquity premium 8% = real-worlprobability + 2% + 1% real-worlprobability = 8% - 3% = 5% 这里的real-worlP我理解用中性减掉LRP，但是为什么要减去CRP？CRP不是应该包括在真实世界P面吗？

2021-03-04 23:29 1 · 回答

B The risk-neutrfault probability is approximately 8% because the market priis 92% of par. risk-neutrprobability = real-worlprobability + cret risk premium + liquity premium 8% = real-worlprobability + 2% + 1% real-worlprobability = 8% - 3% = 5% 这个inflation rate只是一个干扰项吧？

2020-11-05 20:22 1 · 回答

B The risk-neutrfault probability is approximately 8% because the market priis 92% of par. risk-neutrprobability = real-worlprobability + cret risk premium + liquity premium 8% = real-worlprobability + 2% + 1% real-worlprobability = 8% - 3% = 5% 我的只能理解，中性定价里面，所有的sprea对CR进行补偿，这个时候CR大了，所以P，如果是objective的话， sprea止对CR进行补偿，还有别的东西，所以，P对就低了。就是扫一眼知道选B ， 还是不太明白你放的那个图，和这句话是怎么补偿的。讲道理RISK NATURP 1+3+2=6%,这个东西应该是sprea概念 如果套用这题，sprea 8%-2.5%=5.5%，如果是risk natur的话5.5%全部补偿CR了，再减去1%的流动性4.5%就是objective 但是这么硬算又找不到答案。。。

2020-10-14 19:45 1 · 回答