2020年MOCK上午题第一题B小问

思路

• 首先，我们需要将题干，做一个分类：哪些是 “information”, 哪些是 Samuel 的 “belief” or “view” or “judgement”
• 然后根据偏差的结果，对号入座

一. Information

公司背景：蓝筹

has been a manager at a blue-chip technology firm for 30 years

• 公司是蓝筹股，且成立至少 30 年。啥是蓝筹股？

A “blue-chip” share is one from a well-recognized company that is considered to be high quality but low risk.
This term generally refers to a company that has a long history of earnings and paying dividends.

• 高质量低风险，有悠久的盈利和分红历史

组合背景：集中且为自家公司

He has consistently invested in the company’s stock and employee stock options. Samuel has accumulated a portfolio of $1.8 million, of which 80% is invested in his firm

• 持续投资自己的公司，180 万的资产，80% 投资在自己公司中

负面信息 1

The current stock price of the employer’s stock is $98. Samuel is reluctant to sell and believes that the share price will rebound towards its 52-week high of $160

• 公司是蓝筹股呀，股价竟然从近 52 周高点 160，跌的快腰斩了 (跌幅 39%) ！
• 这个信息多震撼！是不是公司的基本面发生了什么恶化？题目在这里没有交代，但是这个信息咱们不能放过，算是公司的第一个负面信息

负面信息 2

observes that the quarterly sales of his firm have declined from the previous quarter

• 季度销量环比下降了，公司的第二个负面信息，也算是基本面恶化的一个证据

二. Belief

1 股价会反弹至高点

Samuel is reluctant to sell and believes that the share price will rebound towards its 52-week high of $160.

• 跌幅是 39%，但是要涨回去，意味着涨幅可是 63% !
• 题目没说 Samuel 为啥认为会反弹至高点，咱继续看

2 基本面恶化只是暂时

He believes that this decline in sales is temporary because of the stock’s past success and reaffirms his belief in his employer’s stock.

好了，有了 “information” 和 “belief”，咱就可以确认行为偏差了

三. Bias

1. Confirmation bias

Consequences

Hold a disproportionate amount of their investment assets in their employing company’s stock because they believe in their company and are convinced of its favorable prospects. Favorable information is cited, and unfavorable infor-mation is ignored.

• 持有自己公司 80% 的比例，且对于负面信息，虽然没有忽视，但是处理的结果，还是支持持有的结果

2. Conservatism bias

Consequences

Maintain or be slow to update a view or a forecast, even when presented with new information

• 蓝筹股，跌幅 39%，一般情况下，不会是一朝一夕
• 加上又有季度销量下滑的基本面数据，依然保持原有信念

3. Illusion of control bias

Consequences

Lead investors to inadequately diversify portfolios.
Researchers have found that some investors prefer to invest in companies that they may feel they have some control over, like the companies they work for, leading them to hold concentrated positions.

• 这条解析有提到。
• 因为在持股公司工作了 30 年，觉得对股价有了掌控感

4. Overconfidence bias

Consequences

Hold poorly diversified portfolios

• 明明 “relies on AJ Investments for advice”, 但是面对专业建议，也没采取
• 80% 持股比例，且认为股价还会涨 63% 回到高点