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很不酷 · 2020年09月29日

问一道题:NO.PZ2020011101000027

问题如下:

ADF tests are conducted on the log of the ten-year US government bond interest rate using data from 1988 until the end of 2017. The results of the ADF with different configurations of the deterministic terms are reported in the table below. The final three columns report the number of lags included in the test as selected using the AIC and the 5% and 1% critical values that are appropriate for the sample size and included deterministic terms. Do interest rates contain a unit root?


选项:

解释:

The first step is to select the appropriate model to use. For these, the statistical significance of the parameters for the constant and trend must be taken into account.

For the trend model, both of these have t-stats with absolute values >4, well within the bounds of statistical significance at even the 99% level. Accordingly, the proper model to study is the last one. For this model, the t-stat on gamma is to the left of the 1% CV—therefore, the null hypothesis of having a unit root is rejected at the 99% confidence level. Note that if the proper model were either the constant or no-trend then the null hypothesis would not be rejected.

仅凭critical value不能确定是否拒绝原假设吧,是不是应该要查ADF分布的表呢。好像没讲过ADF查表。

1 个答案

品职答疑小助手雍 · 2020年09月30日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


不用掌握查表,给了critical value是在后两列,前两列下面括号里的数值就是检验结果,用来跟critical value对比的。


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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!


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