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苏·Xu · 2020年09月14日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018062002000086 [ CFA I ]

问题如下:

For a technical analyst who uses past prices and volume to predict future prices, what's his assumption about the market efficiency?

选项:

A.

The market is semi-strong-form efficient.

B.

The market is weak-form inefficient.

C.

The market is weak-form efficient.

解释:

B is correct.
Based on the weak-form efficient hypothesis, investors cannot earn abnormal returns by trading on the basis of past prices and volume. So technical analysts assume that markets are weak-form inefficient.

请重新审核改题目答案,私以为是weak-form efficient. 改题目意在考察这一类市场有效性比较低,weak一词已经对efficient做出了修饰,望回复。
1 个答案

Debrah_品职答疑助手 · 2020年09月15日

同学你好,如果我们能通过历史价量信息获得超额收益,那么就说明该市场没有达到弱势有效,因此是弱势无效。原版书关于weak-form efficien的定义如下

In the weak-form efficient market hypothesis, security prices fully reflect all past market data, which refers to all historical price and trading volume information. If markets are weak-form efficient, past trading data are already reflected in current prices and investors cannot predict future price changes by extrapolating prices or patterns of prices from the past.