问题如下：
Natural gas prices exhibit seasonal volatility. Specifically, the entire forward curve is more volatile during the wintertime. Which of the following statements concerning VAR is correct if the VAR is estimated using unweighted historical simulation and a three-year sample period?
选项：
A.We will overstate VAR in the summer and understate VAR in the winter.
B.We will overstate VAR in the summer and overstate VAR in the winter.
C.We will understate VAR in the summer and understate VAR in the winter.
D.We will understate VAR in the summer and overstate VAR in the winter.
解释：
This method essentially estimates the average volatility over a three-year window, ignoring seasonality. As a result, if the conditional volatility is higher during the winter, the method will understate the true risk, and conversely for the summer.
你好，我的对var的理解是损失，但是根据这道题来说，我能理解在冬天波动性大，夏天波动性小，但是根据波动性如何联系到var的损失度量上呢？
