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vivian_zm · 2020年07月19日

问一道题:NO.PZ2016070202000016

问题如下:

In early 2000, a risk manager calculates the VAR for a technology stock fund based on the past three years of data. The strategy of the fund is to buy stocks and write out-of-the-money puts. The manager needs to compute VAR. Which of the following methods would yield results that are least representative of the risks inherent in the portfolio?

选项:

A.

Historical simulation with full repricing

B.

Delta-normal VAR assuming zero drift

C.

Monte Carlo style VAR assuming zero drift with full repricing

D.

Historical simulation using delta equivalents for all positions

解释:

D is correct.

Because the portfolio has options, methods A or C based on full repricing would be appropriate. Next, recall that technology stocks had a big increase in price until March 2000. From 1996 to 1999, the NASDAQ index went from 1,300 to 4,000. This creates a positive drift in the series of returns. So, historical simulation without an adjustment for this drift would bias the simulated returns upward, thereby underestimating VAR.

请问为什么不能选B呢?B选项也是zero drift呀

1 个答案
已采纳答案

小刘_品职助教 · 2020年07月19日

同学你好,

这道题B和D都不对,但因为题目里问的least,所以选一个最差的方法即可。

选项B里的Delta-normal假设的是收益率呈正态分布,相比于D是要好一些的。

个人觉得不太需要纠结这题目😅