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paradise1018 · 2020年07月17日

CME credit premium/ risk premium

老师您好。CME基础班fixed income building block书上例题,对于两个结论有些迷惑:

1 the increase in loan defaults suggests that credit losses are likely to be higher next year as well, since defaults tend to cluster. all else the same, this reduces the expected return on corporate bonds/loan. hence, the credit premium should increase less than would otherwise be implied by the steeper yield curve and wider credit spreads.


2 the resilience of the equity market and the decline in equity option volatility suggest that investors are not demanding a general increase in risk premiums.


我对2的理解是:波动降低,投资者要求的风险溢价就低。 反过来说,波动如果升高,投资者要求的风险溢价就要高。

而1中说违约升高(我理解就是volatility升高),按照2的逻辑,投资者应该要求更高的风险溢价(credit premium increase)。为什么最后的结论是credit premium increase less ?

1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2020年07月17日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


首先违约风险上升后, credit premium increase ,这就已经符合2的逻辑了

1中只是在说 credit premium 的increase 少于 credit spread的 increase ,本身credit premium 是反应事后的补偿,站在事后角度,既然违约已经发生,那么获得的补偿自然就比较少。


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