二级财务M score最后一项为什么是负号

嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：

Beneish (1999)在选择这个变量的时候是认为理论上leverage大会刺激公司去操纵财报。下文引用自Beneish, M. D. (1999). The detection of earnings manipulation.

“Leverage Index(LVGI): LVGI is the ratio of total debt to total assets in year t relative to the corresponding ratio in year t-1.A LVGI greater than 1 indicates an increase in leverage. The variable is included to capture debt covenants incentives for earnings manipulation. Assuming that leverage follows a random walk, LVGI implicitly measures the leverage forecast error.I use the change in leverage in the firms' capital structure given evidence in Beneish and Press (1993) that such changes are associated with the stock market effect of default.”

"The evidence indicates that the probability of manipulation increases with: (i) unusual increases in receivables,(ii) deteriorating gross margins,(ii) decreasing asset quality (as defined later),(iv) sales growth, and(v) increasing accruals. "

但是这篇论文的实证结果得到的这个变量的系数是负的，没有得出正相关的结论。

讲义上的内容跟原版书教材是一致的：

考试不会考这个的，知道M-score的结论，知道怎么根据M-score算出的数字判断就行。

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虽然现在很辛苦，但努力过的感觉真的很好，加油！