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Pina · 2020年06月21日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018123101000112

问题如下:

Kowalski analyzes the outstanding bonds of DLL Corporation, a high-quality issuer with a strong, competitive position. Her focus is to determine the rationale for a positively sloped credit spread term structure. DLL’s credit spread term structure is most consistent with the firm having:

选项:

A.

low leverage.

B.

weak cash flow.

C.

a low profit margin.

解释:

A is correct. Positively sloped credit spread curves may arise when a high-quality issuer with a strong competitive position in a stable industry has low leverage, strong cash flow, and a high profit margin. This type of issuer tends to exhibit very low short-term credit spreads that rise with increasing maturity given greater uncertainty due to the macroeconomic environment, potential adverse changes in the competitive landscape, technological change, or other factors that drive a higher implied probability of default over time. Empirical academic studies also tend to support the view that the credit spread term structure is upward sloping for investment-grade bond portfolios.

老师好啊, “对于high-quality issuer往往credit spread curve是向上倾斜的 或慢慢 变flat ” 是吗? 对于low-quality issuer往往credit spread curve是否也是向上倾斜的,然后就是curve 会更steep 一点?, 因为curve 越陡, 说明credit spread 会widen, 这样理解对吗? 谢谢。

1 个答案
已采纳答案

吴昊_品职助教 · 2020年06月22日

credit spread curve在二级固收中两次提到,我们有两个维度来理解这条曲线,按债券的信用质量来划分,按信用曲线形状来划分。

首先,在大多数情况下信用曲线都是向上倾斜的,信用曲线代表的是credit spread和时间之间的关系。因为同一个信用级别的债券,时间越长,违约的可能性更大一点。那么对于长期,credit spread会更大,因为投资者需要更多的补偿。只有在短期会发生金融危机时,信用曲线会向下倾斜。

第二个维度:对于高级别发行人来说,或者评级较高的债券,短期的spread很低,因为现在它的状况已经非常好了,将来不可能更好了,将来违约的可能性反而会上升,所以对于high-quality issuer往往credit spread curve是向上倾斜的。另外,现在是一个好人,将来也不会差到哪里去,所以高质量债券往往是slight upward或者是flat的。

相反,high-yield bond有可能是向上倾斜,并且比较陡峭。现在这家公司本身就比较差,将来极有可能会违约,一旦违约,spread会一下子上涨很多,所以曲线比较陡峭。high-yield bond也有可能是向下倾斜的,现在很差,有可能管理层会对公司进行重组,改善经营从而使得未来的spread下降,信用曲线就向下倾斜了。所以high-yield bond的信用曲线可能是steeper upward也有可能是downward。

你可以回听一下下列这段视频,老师讲解的非常清楚。

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wecash flow. a low profit margin. A is correct. Positively slopecret sprecurves marise when a high-quality issuer with a strong competitive position in a stable instry hlow leverage, strong cash flow, ana high profit margin. This type of issuer ten to exhibit very low short-term cret sprea thrise with increasing maturity given greater uncertainty e to the macroeconomic environment, potentiaerse changes in the competitive lancape, technologicchange, or other factors thive a higher implieprobability of fault over time. Empiricacamic stues also tento support the view ththe cret spreterm structure is upwarsloping for investment-gra bonportfolios. 关于这题的提问我都看了一遍,还是没理解…1)一个回答说这里是曲线是向上倾斜,并且下移……我没太明白怎么体现的下移。而且positive跟upwarsloping有什么具体区别吗?这是怎么通过图比较的?2)如果信用风险变大不应该是高杠杆吗?这怎么体现出来现在情况很好的啊…

2022-08-05 10:59 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2018123101000112 这个题目读过来的感觉是这家公司很好,但是cret curve向上倾斜了,问是什么原因?如果向上倾斜了不是因为公司信用变差了吗?

2021-03-18 00:50 1 · 回答

这里的positively意思也是向上倾斜的吗?

2020-06-09 12:25 1 · 回答

老师好, 题中说Her focus is to termine the rationale for a positively slopecret spreterm structure.问题哪里可以看出是在问下面哪一项是符合high quality bon的特征的? 一开始读题,以为是在问 下面哪一项可以说明cret sprecurve will have upwarslope? 以为low leverage--> lower risk --> narrower cret sprea-> slope wnwar 所以不能支持curve 向上的说法。 虽然用删选的方法可以选对,想问的是怎么读题可以不理解错? 谢谢。

2020-03-18 20:50 1 · 回答