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HG · 2020年06月06日

问一道题:NO.PZ201512020300000901

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问题如下:

Based on Exhibit 1, Olabudo should:

选项:

A.

conclude that the inflation predictions are unbiased.

B.

reject the null hypothesis that the slope coefficient equals 1.

C.

reject the null hypothesis that the intercept coefficient equals 0.

解释:

A is correct. If the consensus inflation forecast is unbiased, then the intercept, b0, should equal 0, and the slope coefficient, b1, should equal 1. The t-statistic for the intercept coefficient is 0.5351, which is less than the critical t-value of 2.0, so the intercept coefficient is not statistically different than 0. To test whether the slope coefficient equals 1, the t-statistic is calculated as: t=–1.0968

Because the absolute value of the t-statistic of –1.0968 is less than the critical t-value of 2.0, the slope coefficient is not statistically different than 1. Therefore, Olabudo can conclude that the inflation forecasts are unbiased.

incept的验证, 0.5351不是小于2吗?那就应该拒绝H0,那就是不等于0啊?我有点晕了这个地方

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2020年06月09日

同学你好,

对于intercept的假设检验的原假设为H0:b0=0

由于t-statistic(0.5351)<critical t-value(2.0),所以不能拒绝原假设,也就是not statistically different from 0. 这个结论等于在说假设检验的结果证明了b0=0

所以最后的结论是假设检验的结果为intercept=0(C选项说反了)

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NO.PZ201512020300000901 老师好 为啥 If the consensus inflation forecast is unbiase then the intercept, b0, shoulequ0, anthe slope coefficient, b1, shoulequ1. 这里该怎么理解?谢谢

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